WTI battles $63.50 amid US output slump, reflation buzz

  • A 10% drop in US crude output powers WTI to fresh yearly highs.
  • Reflation trade drives US Treasury yields through the roof.
  • OPEC+ weighing a slight output increase limits the advance.

WTI (futures on NYMEX) has reversed to near the $63.50 region after refreshing 13-month highs at $63.78 in the last hour.

The pullback could be seen as sign of slight bullish exhaustion, as the buyers catch a breath before gathering pace for a break above the $64 mark. The US oil remains on track for a weekly gain after settling the previous week in the red zone.

The black gold continues to draw support from the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly report published Wednesday, which showed that US crude output dropped by 10%, as refining runs hit the lowest levels since 2008 due to a winter storm in Texas.

Further, the risk-on rally in global equities, in the wake of the reflation trade, lends support to the riskier asset oil. Although the further upside appears to have stalled for now, as the surging US Treasury yields dull the attractiveness of oil as an alternative higher-yielding asset.

Also, reports that OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) are planning a modest boost to the oil output by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd), also keep the investors unnerved. Attention now turns towards the US durable goods data and GDP report for fresh trading impetus on the USD-sensitive oil.

WTI: Technical levels


Today last price 63.44
Today Daily Change 0.23
Today Daily Change % 0.36
Today daily open 63.2
Daily SMA20 58.04
Daily SMA50 53.51
Daily SMA100 47.83
Daily SMA200 43.83
Previous Daily High 63.31
Previous Daily Low 60.92
Previous Weekly High 62.25
Previous Weekly Low 58.58
Previous Monthly High 53.94
Previous Monthly Low 47.26
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 62.4
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 61.83
Daily Pivot Point S1 61.64
Daily Pivot Point S2 60.09
Daily Pivot Point S3 59.25
Daily Pivot Point R1 64.03
Daily Pivot Point R2 64.87
Daily Pivot Point R3 66.42



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