When is US PCE Price Index and how could it affect EUR/USD?

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

US PCE Price Index Overview

Friday's US economic docket highlights the release of the November Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, scheduled later during the early North American session at 13:30 GMT. The headline gauge is expected to have edged lower to 0.5% in December from 0.6% previous, while the yearly rate is seen rising to 6.1% from 5.7% in November. The core reading is forecast to come in at 0.5% for the reported month and rise from a 4.8% YoY rate from 4.7%.

How Could it Affect EUR/USD?

A strong than expected reading will boost bets for a 50 bps Fed rate hike in March and push the US Treasury bond yields/US dollar higher. Conversely, a softer print might do little to derail the Fed's plan for an eventual liftoff in March or dent the prevalent strong bullish sentiment surrounding the buck. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the EUR/USD pair is to the downside.

Meanwhile, Eren Sengezer, Editor at FXStreet, offered a brief technical outlook for the major: “the pair continues to show extremely oversold conditions with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) staying way below 40. Furthermore, EUR/USD is trading below the descending regression channel coming from mid-January. Even if the pair were rise above 1.1150 and return within the descending channel, sellers are likely to remain in control as long as the 1.1220 (upper limit of the descending channel) resistance holds..”

“On the downside, 1.1100 (psychological level) aligns as the next support. Back in January 2020, EUR/USD extended its decline to 1.1000 after it broke below 1.1100 and a similar action could be expected in the short term,” Eren added further.

Key Notes

• US PCE Inflation Preview: Dollar rally has more legs to run

• EUR/USD Forecast: No convincing recovery in sight for euro

• Further weakness lies ahead for EUR/USD – UOB

About the US PCE Price Index

The Personal Spending released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce is an indicator that measures the total expenditure by individuals. The level of spending can be used as an indicator of consumer optimism. It is also considered as a measure of economic growth: While Personal spending stimulates inflationary pressures, it could lead to raise interest rates. A high reading is positive (or Bullish) for the USD.

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

EUR/USD stays bid near 1.1560, focus shifts to the ECB

EUR/USD extends its weekly recovery for the third day in a row on Wednesday, navigating in a sidelined fashion around 1.1560 on the back of decent losses in the US Dollar. In the meantime, market participants continue to assess the latest US inflation data while hifting its attention to the ECB event on Thursday.

GBP/USD recedes from tops, hovers around 1.3400

GBP/USD could not sustain the initial bull run and is now slipping back toward the 1.3400 neighbourhood on Wednesday. Cable’s continuation of the ongoing leg higher follows mild selling pressure on the Greenback, despite steady uncertainty on the geopolitical front and elevated US inflation.

Gold bleeding continues as Middle East crisis escalates, Fed hike coming

Gold is accelerating its downward trends and approaches the area of $4,100 per troy ounce on Wednesday, where the 2026 bottom sits so far. The persistent decline in the precious metal almost exclusively follows the swelling opinion that the Fed will keep a cautious stance in H2, a view that was reinforced following earlier US CPI data.

$1,500: Why Ethereum just crashed 20% despite spot markets barely selling

Ethereum (ETH) recently suffered one of its sharpest declines of 2026, dropping more than 20% and briefly testing the $1,500 area. While the sell-off appeared to reflect broader market fears, derivatives and on-chain data suggest a more complex story may be unfolding beneath the surface.

Brutal sell-off: Silver deepens months-long slide, refocusing on $60

Silver has never been known for its calm temperament. The precious metal can spend weeks grinding higher before suddenly giving back months of gains in a matter of days. That volatile reputation has been on full display in recent weeks.

The US economy defies the rules: 100 days into the Oil shock and the recession signal is still missing

More than three months after the start of the Iran war and the resulting disruption to global energy markets, the US economy continues to display remarkable resilience. The conflict has triggered a sharp rise in Oil prices, reignited inflationary pressures and fueled widespread concerns about a potential economic slowdown.