Fed’s Goolsbee: Inflation has been above target for four and a half years

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said on Friday that waiting would have provided the benefit of the updated economic data, and most data show stable economic growth, with the labor market only moderately cooling.

Key takeaways

Goolsbee dissented over the rate cut because he believed the Fed should wait for more information, particularly about inflation.

There is little to suggest the labor market is decaying so fast that the Fed could not have waited until early 2026 to cut rates again.

Inflation has been above target for four and a half years, progress has stalled, and businesses and consumers cite prices as a main concern.

Higher current inflation may have come from tariffs and could prove transitory, but the danger is that it becomes more long-lasting.

Waiting would have been the more prudent course and would not have entailed much additional risk.

Most data show stable economic growth, with the labor market only moderately cooling.

There is still optimism that rates can come down significantly over the next year, but there are concerns about front-loading given the inflation of the last several years.

Can't assume that current inflation will be transitory.

Waiting until Q1 for rate cuts would allow Fed to be assured inflation is coming down.

Measures of job market have been pretty stable.

Shifts in data like monthly payrolls have made it difficult to assess things like breakeven job creation rates.

To have both low hiring and low firing does not suggest a cyclical downturn.

Not hawkish on rates next year, feel optimistic rates can fall this year but uncomfortable front loading looser policy.

Services inflation before the government shutdown was concerning.

There is nothing wrong with the argument that inflation will fall next year but need to be more certain.

Says he is below the median in terms of 2026 rate cuts.

Expect the unemployment rate to be pretty stable.

Prices are one of the main concerns that businesses and consumers have about the economy right now.

People take the Fed job seriously, that is fundamental to its independence.

Vote to reappoint Fed regional presidents took place on a normal schedule but was announced earlier.

The process of reappointing regional bank presidents is "very robust".

The restart of Fed security purchases is technical to assure rate control, not part of monetary policy.

The balance sheet under ample reserves has to grow as the economy does.

Take some comfort in market-based measures of inflation, a source of optimism about the path of price increases.

Drop in inflation should be detectable in the first quarter of the year."