When is the Australian Retail Sales and how could they affect AUD/USD?

Anil Panchal FXStreet

Retail Sales overview

Early Friday, the market sees the preliminary reading for the February month Retail Sales data from Australia at 00:30 GMT. Following the upbeat prints in January, Aussie retail activity has been a little weaker and the same can be seen in today’s initial figures suggesting 0.4% growth in the key economics versus 0.5% prior.

Ahead of the release, Westpac said,

Retail turnover has been choppy through Nov - Jan due to both COVID disruptions ('mini-lockdowns' in several states) and shifts relating to 'Black Friday' sales and catch-up spend in Vic following the state's reopening. February saw yet more COVID disruptions, this time with Qld and Vic both instituting week-long lockdowns. Our Westpac Card Tracker suggests these had limited impact for the month as a whole. On balance we expect Feb to show a decent 1% gain.

Analysts at TD Securities sound a little less upbeat on the data while saying,

Retail sales should rise in Feb, building on the modest 0.5% m/m gain in Jan. Consumer sentiment (as measured by Westpac Consumer Confidence Index) bounced back in Feb, with consumers expecting a faster improvement in economic prospects and this should translate to greater spending as households feel more comfortable drawing down on their sizeable savings.

How could it affect AUD/USD?

AUD/USD remains depressed near 0.7760, extending the previous day’s losses from the fresh monthly high, during the initial Asian session on Friday, ahead of the data. In doing so, the quote rejects the previous day’s upbeat employment figures amid a risk-off mood, mainly taking clues from the bond moves and US-China jitters. As a result, today’s Aussie retail sales may offer a little solace to the AUD/USD traders unless flashing strongly positive numbers.

Technically, AUD/USD stays above 50-day SMA and a short-term rising support line, respectively around 0.7740 and 0.7710, which in turn keeps buyers hopeful to again cross the 0.7800 threshold.

Key Notes

AUD/USD Forecast: Further declines expected in the near-term

AUD/USD: Pressured below 0.7800 on strong Treasury yields, focus on Aussie Retail Sales

AUD/JPY extends recovery above 84.00 despite US-China jitters, Australia Retail Sales, BOJ eyed

About Australian Retail Sales

The Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a survey of goods sold by retailers is based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes and it's considered as an indicator of the pace of the Australian economy. It shows the performance of the retail sector over the short and mid-term. Positive economic growth anticipates bullish trends for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

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