When are US monthly retail sales figures and how could they affect EUR/USD?


US monthly retail sales overview

Friday's US economic docket highlights the release of monthly retail sales figures for September, scheduled later during the early North American session at 12:30 GMT. The headline sales are anticipated to have increased by 0.7% during the reported month as against the 0.6% rise recorded in August. Sales excluding autos are projected to climb 0.5% in September as against the previous month's growth of 0.7%. Meanwhile, the closely watched Retail Sales Control Group are anticipated to have risen by a modest 0.2% following a surprise drop of 0.1% in August.

How could it affect EUR/USD?

A softer reading would provide further evidence that the post-lockdown recovery is flattening out. Against the backdrop of the impasse over the next round of the US fiscal stimulus measures, a weaker print might exert some pressure on the US dollar. That said, fresh coronavirus jitters might continue to support the greenback's safe-haven status and helped limit any deeper losses. Hence, any immediate reaction to the disappointing reading is more likely to fizzle out rather quickly.

Meanwhile, Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own analyst, provided some important technical levels to trade the EUR/USD pair: “Critical support awaits at 1.1685, which provided support on Thursday and also in late September. Further down, last month's lows of 1.1625 and 1.1610 await the currency pair. Some resistance is at 1.1720, which separated ranges earlier this week, followed by 1.1770, a swing high, and 1.1810.”

Key Notes

  •  US Retail Sales September Preview: It's about employment

  •  EUR/USD Forecast: Dead cat bounce could provide sell opportunity, euro faces three headwinds

  •  EUR/USD Price Analysis: The short-term support line holds the downside for now

About US retail sales

The Retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly per cent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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