When are China’s official PMI data and how could they affect AUD/USD?

China Federation of Logistic and Purchasing will release April month’s official PMI  numbers around 01:00 GMT on Thursday. Aussie traders will be particularly interested in watching how the largest customer’s key activity numbers sustain recoveries from the coronavirus shockwave.

Market consensus signals the headline NBS Manufacturing PMI to pull back to 51.00 from 52 while the Non-Manufacturing PMI registered 52.3 during March.

Ahead of the data, TD Securities said:

We expect a slight softening to around 50 in April from 52.0 previously, as some of the enthusiasm fades. Weakness in Q1 activity culminated in a 6.8% y/y decline in Q1 GDP and recovery is likely to be patchy. Strict health controls remaining in place in much of the country and the worsening exports and jobs outlook are likely to continue to weigh on activity. Already there has been some loss of momentum in high-frequency indicators. Although the overall manufacturing PMI is likely to remain in expansion this month (barely) helped by upstream sectors, as well as infrastructure and construction, expect continued weakness in both export and imports components. The non-manufacturing PMI is unlikely to fare much better given continued health restrictions and continued consumer caution.

On the other hand, analysts at Westpac mentioned:

At 11 am Syd/9 am local we see the official China PMIs. The manufacturing index fell as low as 35.7 in Feb but rebounded to 52.0 in Mar. The consensus on Apr is 51.0. The non-manufacturing PMI sank to 29.6 in Feb then was back to 52.3 in Mar, with a similar reading expected in Apr. Both would be consistent with moderate economic growth.

How could they affect AUD/USD?

Given the latest recoveries in the Chinese fundamentals, mainly due to its comeback from the pandemic, any more positives can offer additional strength to the Aussie’s run-up around multi-day high. However, a surprise weakness, as anticipated widely, could offer the much-needed pullback to antipodeans.

Technically, 100-day SMA near 0.6570 is still standing tall to challenge the buyers to target a 200-day SMA level near 0.6685. Though, sellers will refrain entries unless breaking mid-month high close to 0.6445/40.

Key Notes

AUD/USD extends post-FOMC gains to cross 0.6550, fresh seven-week high, China PMIs eyed

AUD/USD Forecast: Bulls continue to lead, Chinese data in the way

About the China NBS Manufacturing PMI

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) studies business conditions in the Chinese manufacturing sector. Any reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading under 50 shows contraction. As the Chinese economy has an influence on the global economy, this economic indicator would have an impact on the Forex market.

About the China Non-Manufacturing PMI

The official non-manufacturing PMI, released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP), is based on a survey of about 1,200 companies covering 27 industries including construction, transport and telecommunications. It's the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry and if it's above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction.

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD met sellers on another approach to 0.7340

The greenback soared following the release of upbeat US data, resulting in AUD/USD falling back below the 0.7300 threshold. Australian Trade Balance coming up next.


XAU/USD attempting to set a bottom at $1,830 multi-month low

Gold futures have finally broken support at $1,850 on Monday, plunging to fresh four-month lows at $1,830 amid a broadly stronger US dollar. XAU/USD has managed to find buyers at the mentioned $1,830 although it remains about 1.6% lower on the day.

Gold news

USD/JPY regains 104.50, could extend recovery

The USD/JPY pair hit a one-week high of 104.63 and is set to extend gains on persistent dollar’s strength. The positive tone of equities provide additional support to the pair.


Bitcoin final leg to $20,000 lingers, as crypto bull cycle rockets

Cryptocurrencies across the board had a memorable weekend session, with most of them rallying to new yearly highs. Ethereum, for instance, hit highs of $585 for the first time since 2018. On the other hand, Ripple brushed shoulders with $0.5.

Read more

Black Friday 2020 Discounts!

Learn to trade with the best! Don't miss the most experienced traders and speakers in FXStreet Premium webinars. Also if you are a Premium member you can get real-time FXS Signals and receive daily market analysis with the best forex insights!

More info