Wake Up Wall Street (SPY) (QQQ): Fed to set the tone and direction
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, May 4:
Really why are we even writing this column as all can change so rapidly depending on what the Fed sees fit to do later on Wednesday. Well, as mentioned, positioning in equity land is a bit light but investors are waiting for the Fed to get out of the way first. We feel the risk-reward is to the upside as bond markets and equity markets are pricing in a pretty aggressive course of action from the Fed this year.
For now, the US economy is hanging in there while markets are beginning to price in recession risk. Tuesday saw a modest afternoon recovery in equity markets which are largely flat this morning. Oil stocks though should again get yet another boost as the EU announces it is to stop Russian oil imports which have seen oil spike a couple of dollars.
Bond markets too largely sat out Tuesday and yields remain just below 3% across the curve, with the 30-year just breaching it this morning. Oil, as mentioned, is up to $107 while the US dollar is a touch weaker at $103.35 for the dollar index. Watch this for the real action post the Fed, the USD has been on a charge this month so is it due to a pause? Bitcoin is up 3% at $38,900 and gold price is at $1,867.
European markets are flat: Eurostoxx +0.1%, FTSE +0.1% and Dax -0.1%.
US futures are positive: S&P +0.2%, Dow +0.3% and Nasdaq +0.4%.
Wall street (SPY) (QQQ) top news
EU President says to phase out Russian oil within 6 months.
JPM CEO says Europe recession likely if Ukraine drags on.
US ADP jobs gains 247k versus +398k expected.
Tradeweb (TW) average volume up 22%. Bond market platform.
LYFT collapses 27% after earnings. Hit on expense outlook.
UBER earnings due after the close.
AMD beat on earnings and raised forecasts, up 5%.
Johnson Controls (JCI) down 8% on earnings.
Match Group (MTCH) down on guidance.
Starbucks (SBUX) up 6% on earnings and bullish CEO on conference call.
Moderna (MRNA) up 6% on earnings.
AirBnB (ABNB) up on strong earnings.
Coterra (CTRA) files for mixed shelf offering.
Mariott (MAR) resumes dividend after pandemic.
Emerson Electric (EMR) to exit Russia, earnings strong, stock up 1%.
Ferrari (RACE) beats on top and bottom lines, stock races ahead!
Upgrades and downgrades
Source: Benzinga Pro
Economic calendar
*The author is long LYFT and short TSLA and wishes he was long just one Ferrari (RACE)!
Author
Ivan Brian
FXStreet
Ivan Brian started his career with AIB Bank in corporate finance and then worked for seven years at Baxter. He started as a macro analyst before becoming Head of Research and then CFO.
