- USD/TRY remains directionless in the 13.6000 region on Friday.
- Cautiousness among investors is seen rising ahead of CBRT event.
- Turkey’s End Year CPI Forecast came in at 29.75% in January.
USD/TRY alternates gains with losses around the 13.60/50 region at the end of the week.
USD/TRY cautious, looks to CBRT
USD/TRY remains broadly side-lined within the 13.00-14.00 range so far this year, with any bullish attempt likely to face strong resistance from intervention in the FX markets by the Turkish central bank.
On Thursday, President Erdogan defended the recently adopted scheme to protect lira deposits in an attempt to minimize the dollarization of its economy at the time when he stressed that “the swelling inflation is not in line with the realities of our country” at his testimony before the Turkish parliament.
In the docket, the End Year CPI Forecast came in at 29.75% in January, up from the previous 23.85%.
What to look for around TRY
The pair is seen moving within a 13.00-14.00 range so far this year. The higher-than-expected inflation figures released at the beginning of the year put the lira under extra pressure in combination with some cracks in the confidence among Turks regarding the government’s recently announced plan to promote the de-dollarization of the economy. In the meantime, the reluctance of the CBRT to change the (collision?) course and the omnipresent political pressure to favour lower interest rates in the current context of rampant inflation and (very) negative real interest rates are forecast to keep the domestic currency under intense pressure for the time being.
Eminent issues on the back boiler: Progress (or lack of it) of the government’s new scheme oriented to support the lira. Constant government pressure on the CBRT vs. bank’s credibility/independence. Bouts of geopolitical concerns. Much-needed structural reforms. Growth outlook vs. progress of the coronavirus pandemic. Potential assistance from the IMF in case another currency crisis re-emerges. Earlier Presidential/Parliamentary elections?
USD/TRY key levels
So far, the pair is down 0.07% at 13.5551 and a drop below 12.7523 (2022 low Jan.3) would pave the way for a test of 12.3367 (55-day SMA) and finally 10.2027 (monthly low Dec.23). On the other hand, the next up barrier lines up at 13.9319 (2022 high Jan.10) followed by 18.2582 (all-time high Dec.20) and then 19.0000 (round level).
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.