USD/TRY edging higher, approaches the 6.10 area

  • TRY is on the defensive near the 6.10 handle vs. USD.
  • The 21-day SMA around 5.96 offers weekly support.
  • Turkey jobless rate came in at 14.7% in February.

The Turkish currency is losing ground on Wednesday and is pushing USD/TRY to the vicinity of the key 6.10 mark.

USD/TRY stronger, looks to trade, US docket

Following yesterday’s daily gains, the Turkish Lira appears to have resumed the downside today on the back of omnipresent US-China trade concerns and domestic politics.

In fact, optimism over an eventual deal to end the current US-China trade war have been sustaining a mild upbeat mood during early trade, although it has dissipated since the opening bell in Euroland, giving legs to the recovery in the buck.

In the meantime, a Turkish court decided to keep US consulate employee in jail for the time being. The accused, a Turkish national, is imprisoned on terrorism-related charges. This situation reminds of that involving US pastor A.Brunson and it could spark another bout of frictions between the US and Turkey.

In addition TRY remains vigilant on the political campaign to attract undecided voters ahead of the critical municipal elections in Istanbul on June 23.

In the domestic data space, the jobless rate ticked higher to 14.7% in February and Retail Sales expanded at a monthly 1.0% during March, adding to the previous 0.8% gain. These results add to yesterday’s positive print from the Industrial Production, which continues its recovery.

What to look for around TRY

The Lira is seen under increasing selling pressure for the time being. The broader sentiment around the EM FX space should continue to influence on TRY via rising uncertainty around the US-China trade talks. In addition, friction between the AKP and its main opposition party ahead of the municipal elections in Istanbul is also emerging as another source for Lira volatility. Further out, potential US sanctions following the purchase of the Russian missile defence system keeps lingering over the country as well as sanctions over Iranian crude oil exports. Adding insult to injury, the independence and credibility of the CBRT should remain under the microscope against the omnipresent conflict between the Erdogan’s administration and bank’s authorities.

USD/TRY key levels

At the moment the pair is gaining 0.88% at 6.0782 and faces the next hurdle at 6.2457 (2019 high May 9) seconded by 6.8353 (high Aug. 30 2018) and finally 7.0831 (all time high Aug.13 2018). On the other hand, a breach of 5.9630 (21-day SMA) would open the door to 5.9472 (low May 10) and then 5.6497 (200-day SMA).

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD remains on the back foot amid ongoing trade concerns

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1150, the lowest in over two weeks. Markets are worried about US-Sino trade tensions as US companies stop working with China's Huawei. European elections are warming up.


GBP/USD consolidates its losses amid Brexit pessimism

GBP/USD is trading in the low 1.2700s, close to the lowest since January. UK PM May is set to present a new plan after cross-party talks failed and as calls for her to quit mount.


USD/JPY off multi-day tops, looks to test 110.00 ahead of Fedspeak

Japanese growth optimism in play as risk-on fades amid looming US-China trade risks. Eyes on risk sentiment, trade developments and Fed speak for fresh directives.


Gold aims to revisit 9-month old support-line near $1272

Gold is on its third negative trading day as it seesaws near $1276.50 ahead of the European open on Monday. Pessimism surrounding the US-China and the US-Iran relations could limit the bullion’s decline near trend-line support.

Gold News

Cryptos stage a Sunday surge, levels to watch – Confluence Detector

Cryptocurrencies have enjoyed a massive comeback early on Sunday, recovering most losses. The cleanup seen ahead of the weekend may be over, and it is time to look up to higher levels. Here are the levels to watch according to the Confluence Detector.

Read more