USD/TRY: CBRT rate cut will not impact the lira – TDS


The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) will announce on Wednesday, 19 February its policy rate. A rate cut is expected for economists at TD Securities who do not see the Turkish lira suffering. 

Key quotes

“We forecast the CBRT to cut interest rates by 50bps on Wednesday, 19 February. This is in line with the consensus and our previously held view.”

“We think that the market is not positioned for easing. Therefore, rate cuts should have some negative sway on the lira, but we think the currency will remain essentially unchanged with strong activity from state-owned lenders to keep USD/TRY in check. As usual, the announcement will be more a matter of defining the quantum of the cut rather than the direction.”

“We expect no major USD/TRY move due to CBRT action, provided the MPC cuts rates no more than 50-75bps. A decision to hold would see the lira rally somewhat, while deeper cuts than 100bps could add more significant negative pressure than the underlying adverse dynamic is already producing.”

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD looks to test 1.0800 ahead of German ZEW

Despite the latest recovery attempt from a new 34-month of 1.0823 reached in early Asia, the sentiment around the EUR/USD pair remains undermined by the German economic growth concerns and broad US dollar strength. Focus on German ZEW, coronavirus updates.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD extends losses to sub-1.3000 area, UK unemployment rate in focus

GBP/USD stays mildly negative around 1.30 while heading into the London open on Tuesday. UK’s Brexit negotiator shares the same view as PM Boris Johnson, increases the risks of hard departure. UK employment statistics will be the key to clarify on the BOE’s bearish bias.

GBP/USD News

UK jobs preview: 3 reasons why Cable could bounce even if wage growth slows

Lower wages are bad news for workers and usually also for the pound – but these are abnormal times, and sterling may shine in response to the UK's December jobs report. The focus is on wage growth 

Read more

Gold: Positive beyond six-week-old falling trendline

Gold prices take the bids to $1,586.50, +0.35%, during the pre-European session on Tuesday. The yellow metal recently broke a downward sloping trend line stretched from January 08. Early-month top on the buyer’s radar.

Gold News

FXStreet launches Real-Time Trading Signals

FXStreet Signals offers access to explanatory live webinars, real-time notifications when signals are triggered and exclusive membership to the company’s Telegram group, where users get direct guidance by our analysts and get room to discuss and interact.

More info

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures