- China’s March Caixin Manufacturing and Services PMIs fell below 50 for the first time since 2020, signaling its economy is slowing.
- A hawkish Fed speaking weighs on market sentiment, alongside Russo-Ukraine tussles.
- USD/RUB Price Forecast: The uptrend remains intact, but a daily close under 80.3254 might open the door towards the 200-DMA around 77.20s.
The USD/RUB slumps in the North American session amid a downbeat market mood courtesy of a worse than expected China’s Caixin Services PMI, which added to the Manufacturing PMI released last Friday, showed that both readings fell. Also, a hawkish Federal Reserve and extension of hostilities between Ukraine-Russia added a pinch of salt to the dismal sentiment. However, despite the aforementioned, the USD/RUB is trading at 80.0060.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index, a gauge of the greenback’s measure against a basket of its rivals, retreats from YTD highs, down 0.05%, sitting at 99.443. Contrarily, the US Treasury yields are rising.
The 10-year benchmark note sits at 2.62%, up seven basis points, as market players expect the release of March’s monetary policy minutes.
On Wednesday, Federal Reserve policymakers reiterated the need to normalize the economy. Fed’s Governor Lael Brainard spooked the markets, saying that the balance sheet reduction might begin in the May meeting, something unexpected by traders as they were looking to the July meeting. In the same tenor, Kansas City Fed Esther George said that a 50 bps move would be an option we must consider and emphasized that conditions favor going faster than before.
On the Geopolitical front, the fighting continues in Eastern Europe. Moscow said that work is ongoing when the next round of discussions with Ukraine occurs.
However, the USD/RUB held onto losses, breaking below the 82.7000 support area, unsuccessfully tested six times but gave way during Wednesday’s Asian Pacific session.
USD/RUB Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The USD/RUB upward bias remains intact, despite the strength of the fall. However, a daily close under the 80.3254 level would further extend losses, and the USD/RUB could aim toward the 200-day moving average (DMA) at 77.2027.
Upwards, the USD/RUB first resistance would be 82.7882. Breach of the latter would expose essential resistance levels. The next supply zone would be 85.00, followed by the 50-DMA at 88.7789. On the flip side, the USD/RUB first support would be 80.00. A decisive break would expose 78.0683, followed by the 200-DMA at 77.2027.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD edges lower toward 1.0700 post-US PCE
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure but manages to hold above 1.0700 in the American session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) gathers strength against its rivals after the stronger-than-forecast PCE inflation data, not allowing the pair to gain traction.
GBP/USD retreats to 1.2500 on renewed USD strength
GBP/USD lost its traction and turned negative on the day near 1.2500. Following the stronger-than-expected PCE inflation readings from the US, the USD stays resilient and makes it difficult for the pair to gather recovery momentum.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,350 following US inflation
Gold turned south and declined toward $2,340, erasing a large portion of its daily gains, as the USD benefited from PCE inflation data. The benchmark 10-year US yield, however, stays in negative territory and helps XAU/USD limit its losses.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC’s next breakout could propel it to $80,000 Premium
Bitcoin’s recent price consolidation could be nearing its end as technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggest a potential upward breakout. However, this move would not be straightforward and could punish impatient investors.
Week ahead – Hawkish risk as Fed and NFP on tap, Eurozone data eyed too
Fed meets on Wednesday as US inflation stays elevated. Will Friday’s jobs report bring relief or more angst for the markets? Eurozone flash GDP and CPI numbers in focus for the Euro.