According to IMM net speculators’ positioning as at July 16, 2019, long USD positions were virtually unchanged in the week ending July 16 after rising in the previous period and remained well below the levels seen before the Fed turned decisively dovish in May, notes the research team at Rabobank.
“Given that a Fed cut later this month is likely to be followed by the ECB lowering its deposit rate in September, it is difficult to expect net EUR short positions to fall significantly lower from current levels after plunging in May and throughout June on the back of growing market conviction that Chairman Powell will pull the trigger.”
“Speculators increased their bearish bets against GBP to the highest level so far this year and almost matching the August 2018 high.”
“We may witness an increase in long JPY positions this week on the back of rising geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf.”
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