USD/JPY: well based above the 200-D SMA, the quiet before the FOMC storm

  • Traders await the FOMC, the quiet before the storm.
  • USD/JPY well based above the 200-D SMA, hawkish expectations fro the FOMC statement and presser.

USD/JPY has stuck to a tight range in the Tokyo open, unfazed by all the noise ahead of the major event in the FOMC, as well as the BoJ and ECB's all just around the corner.  Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 110.47 with a high of 110.54 and a from a low of 110.36.

The pair is above the 200-D SMA at 110.20, mostly trading sideways inside 110.10-110.50 overnight and rose only fractionally on the WSJ headlines. There is some sentiment that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is 'considering' holding a press conference after every policy meeting rather than every other meeting. 

This sent the DXY to the higher end of the 93 handle and sets up the notion that the Fed is about to get very hawkish. However, this could all just be hot air, and whether Powell really sees it worth his while doing a presser after each meeting is another matter entirely.  

Meanwhile, as for US data, the U.S CPI was up a tic to 2.8% y/y enough to keep UST yields and USD supported ahead of Wed’s FOMC:

USD/JPY levels

Bulls will look for a rally from above the 200-D SMA  on the FOMC towards May's 111.39 peaks on a hawkish outcome. this is where the prior 111.50 option barrier plated its defensive role, lying just above the 111.39 May high in a congested area where the 161.8% of May low & 76.4% of May drop is located. On the wide, the 112.30's, (Fibos at 112.22/33) remain key upside target. On the other hand, a break below the Tenkan prop at 109.19, bears can look to the  55-DMA & daily cloud top around 108.60. 108.05, (100-D SMA), guards a run towards the mid-107.00s with the  2018 low at 104.56 in focus on the downside.

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