USD/JPY technical analysis: Struggles near 100-period SMA on H4, below mid-107.00s amid risk-off mood

The pair adds to last week’s retracement losses amid reviving safe-haven demand.
A goodish pickup in the USD demand helped limit deeper losses, at least for now.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The USD/JPY pair held on to its weaker tone through the early North-American session, albeit has managed to rebound around 20 pips from daily lows. Reviving safe-haven demand, amid worries over global economic growth, boosted demand for traditional safe-haven currencies - like the Japanese Yen - and contributed to the pair's follow-through retracement from multi-week tops set last week.

The pair slipped below last week's bearish gap opening lows support near the 107.45 region - coinciding with 23.6% Fibo. level of the 104.45-108.48 recent recovery move from multi-year lows. However, resurgent USD demand helped the pair to find some support near 100-period SMA on the 4-hourly chart, which should now act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders amid relatively quieter trading action.

Meanwhile, technical indicators on hourly charts have been drifting lower within the negative territory and also lost their bullish momentum on the daily chart, suggesting the resumption of the prior/well-established bearish trend. Sustained weakness below the mentioned support, currently near the 107.30 region, will further reinforce the bearish outlook and prompt some aggressive technical selling.

The pair might then accelerate the downfall further towards testing a previous strong resistance breakpoint - near the 106.60 horizontal zone, with some intermediate support near the 38.2% Fibo. level around the 107.00-106.90 region. The downward trajectory could further get extended towards challenging the 106.00 round-figure mark in the near-term - coinciding with 61.8% Fibo. level.

On the flip side, immediate resistance is now pegged near the 100-day SMA, around the 107.90 region, which if cleared decisively might now set the stage for a move beyond the recent swing highs - around mid-108.00s - towards reclaiming the 109.00 round-figure mark en-route the very important 200-day SMA barrier, currently near the 109.30 region.

USD/JPY 4-hourly chart

USD/JPY

Overview
Today last price	107.43
Today Daily Change	-0.13
Today Daily Change %	-0.12
Today daily open	107.56

Trends
Daily SMA20	107.11
Daily SMA50	107.11
Daily SMA100	107.95
Daily SMA200	109.29

Levels
Previous Daily High	108.09
Previous Daily Low	107.53
Previous Weekly High	108.48
Previous Weekly Low	107.48
Previous Monthly High	109.32
Previous Monthly Low	104.45
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	107.74
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	107.87
Daily Pivot Point S1	107.36
Daily Pivot Point S2	107.16
Daily Pivot Point S3	106.8
Daily Pivot Point R1	107.92
Daily Pivot Point R2	108.28
Daily Pivot Point R3	108.48

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

EUR/USD holds above 1.1800 after German sentiment data

EUR/USD stays in positive territory above 1.1800 on Monday after the data from Germany highlighted a modest improvement in business sentiment in February. Meanwhile, the US Dollar stays under pressure amid growing unceratinty surrounding the US trade regime, allowing the pair to hold its ground.

GBP/USD rises toward 1.3550 as tariff confusion slams USD

GBP/USD extends the advance toward 1.3550 on Monday. The US Dollar faces intense selling pressure as tariff uncertainty lingers following US President Trump's latest announcement. Traders will take more cues from the broader market sentiment and central bank talks.

Gold climbs above $5,100 on broad USD weakness

Gold sticks to its bullish bias near the monthly above $5,100 on Monday. Renewed trade-war fears, along with rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, turn out to be key factors that underpin the safe-haven precious metal and validate the constructive outlook.

Cardano braces for impact as US tariff storm brews

Cardano is down 4% at press time on Monday, entering its third consecutive day of decline. Bearish bias in Cardano’s derivatives market positional buildup aligns with rising pressure on the broader cryptocurrencymarket amid US President Donald Trump's reassessment of global tariffs and domestic conflict with the US Supreme Court.

Supreme Court nixes tariffs, Trump teases 15% global tariff

On February 20th, the Supreme Court ruled that Trump’s global tariffs under IEEPA authority were unconstitutional, effectively nullifying the framework. However, the relief was short-lived. Within hours, Trump floated a 15% blanket tariff under an alternative legal authority.

Top Crypto Losers: Zcash, Pump.fun, and LayerZero extended losses as Bitcoin loses $65,000

The cryptocurrency market starts the week in panic mode, with altcoins Zcash, Pump.fun, and LayerZero. Bitcoin falls below $65,000 as the US President Donald Trump regroups amid renewed trade policy risks.