|

USD/JPY scales to three-day high after robust US NFP report amid Japanese intervention threats

  • USD/JPY ascends to 149.50, rebounding from lows, driven by a US jobs report that eclipsed market expectations.
  • Despite a surge, USD/JPY retraces slightly, settling around 149.20, with US 10-year note yielding at a sturdy 4.780%.
  • Japanese officials express concerns over Yen volatility, while a rise in the 10-year JGB coupon hints at potential BoJ intervention.

USD/JPY climbs during the North American session courtesy of solid US jobs data, which spurred a jump from the last two days' lows of 148.26. On its way north, buyers reclaimed the 149.00 mark and hit a three-day high of 149.50, underpinned by high US bond yields.

US bond yields and employment data boost the USD/JPY, though caution is warranted as Japanese authorities watch volatility

The latest US jobs market data revealed by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) witnessed the creation of more than 336K employees in the economy, smashing estimates of 170K and 100K more than the 227K August upward revised data. The report shows the labor market remains hot, though it could be influenced by seasonality adjustments.

On the wage front, Average Hourly Earnings rose by 4.2% below the consensus and August’s 4.3%, and the Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 3.8%, higher than the consensus of 3.7%.

The USD/JPY increased towards a high of 149.53 before reversing its course and stabilizing at around 149.20. the US 10-year benchmark note retreated from 2007 highs of 4.887%, but it remains up six basis points at 4.780%.

On the Japanese front, authorities remain vocal in regard to “excessive” Japanese Yen (JPY) volatility in the FX markets. Masato Kanda said on Wednesday, “If currencies move too much on a single day or, say, a week, that's judged as excess volatility.”

“Even if that's not the case, if we see one-sided moves accumulate into very big moves in a certain period of time, that's also excess volatility,” he said.

Although there was no official statement regarding last Tuesday’s 200 plus pip fall of the USD/JPY from around 150.00, the exchange rate remains well-suited below the latter. Of note, it should be said that the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) coupon has risen to 0.80%, opening the door for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to intervene and cap the recent rise in yields.

USD/JPY Technical Levels

USD/JPY

Overview
Today last price149.23
Today Daily Change0.72
Today Daily Change %0.48
Today daily open148.51
 
Trends
Daily SMA20148.34
Daily SMA50146.36
Daily SMA100143.63
Daily SMA200138.35
 
Levels
Previous Daily High149.12
Previous Daily Low148.26
Previous Weekly High149.71
Previous Weekly Low148.25
Previous Monthly High149.71
Previous Monthly Low144.44
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%148.59
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%148.79
Daily Pivot Point S1148.14
Daily Pivot Point S2147.77
Daily Pivot Point S3147.28
Daily Pivot Point R1149
Daily Pivot Point R2149.49
Daily Pivot Point R3149.86

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

Christian Borjon began his career as a retail trader in 2010, mainly focused on technical analysis and strategies around it. He started as a swing trader, as he used to work in another industry unrelated to the financial markets.

More from Christian Borjon Valencia
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD recovers to 1.1750 region as 2025 draws to a close

Following the bearish action seen in the European session on Wednesday, EUR/USD regains its traction and recovery to the 1.1750 region. Nevertheless, the pair's volatility remains low as trading conditions thin out on the last day of the year.

GBP/USD stays weak near 1.3450 on modest USD recovery

GBP/USD remains under modest beairsh pressure and fluctuates at around 1.3450 on Wednesday. The US Dollar finds fresh demand due to the end-of-the-year position adjustments, weighing on the pair amid the pre-New Year trading lull. 

Gold retreats to $4,300 area, looks to post monthly gains

Gold stays on the back foot on the last day of 2025 and trades near $4,300, possibly pressured by profit-taking and position adjustments. Nevertheless, XAU/USD remains on track to post gains for December and extend its winning streak into a fifth consecutive month.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP prepare for a potential New Year rebound

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple are holding steady on Wednesday after recording minor gains on the previous day. Technically, Bitcoin could extend gains within a triangle pattern while Ethereum and Ripple face critical overhead resistance. 

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).