USD/JPY Price Analysis: Refreshes weekly highs around 115.40 amid Ukraine/Russia war

The USD/JPY is climbing in the week 0.38%, as demand for safe-haven currencies rises.
USD/JPY plunged on Putin’s “special military operation” headline, but it is paring earlier losses.
USD/JPY Technical Outlook: Upward biased in the daily and the 1-hour chart, but higher volatility levels, suggest following the markets in the short-term, caution is warranted.

Christian Borjon Valencia FXStreet

USD/JPY rises sharply from daily lows around 114.40 to highs 115.30s amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which started on Thursday during the Asian Pacific session. That said, investors’ mood dampened as flows through safe-haven peers increased. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 115.39.

During the Asian session, the UN hosted an emergency security council meeting. Around that time, Russian President Putin unveiled a speech announcing a “special military operation” in Ukraine, aiming to de-nazify and de-militarize the country.

How is Russian-Ukraine war impacting financial markets? Follow our live coverage updates!

Market’s reaction

The USD/JPY initial reaction to newswires was downwards, with the pair plummeting 70 pips and breaking the 50-day moving average (DMA) at 114.87 on its way down and reached a daily low at 114.40. Once European traders got to their offices, the pair recovered its losses and some more, trading near February 23 daily highs at 115.20.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The USD/JPY Is upward biased, as shown by the daily chart from a technical perspective. The daily moving averages (DMAs) reside below the spot price, though it faces resistance around 115.52, November 24, 2021, daily high.

Due to geopolitical developments, it is suggested to take a short-term approach amid high volatility levels witnessed in the financial markets. That said, the USD/JPY 1-hour chart has a bullish bias, and USD/JPY would lean towards February 22 daily high at 115.24 as support. If the pair achieves to print a daily close above it, a move towards the 116.00 figure and YTD high at the 116.30 area is on the cards.

Upwards, the pair's first resistance would be February 17 daily high at 115.53, followed by February 16 cycle high at 115.79 and the February 15 115.82. On the flip side, the USD/JPY first support would be February 22 daily resistance turned support at 115.23. Breach of the latter would expose the 200-hour simple moving average (SMA) at 115.18, followed by the confluence of the 50-100 hour SMAs at 114.97 and 114.93, respectively.

USD/JPY

Overview
Today last price	115.4
Today Daily Change	0.40
Today Daily Change %	0.35
Today daily open	115

Trends
Daily SMA20	115.2
Daily SMA50	114.86
Daily SMA100	114.31
Daily SMA200	112.19

Levels
Previous Daily High	115.2
Previous Daily Low	114.93
Previous Weekly High	115.88
Previous Weekly Low	114.79
Previous Monthly High	116.35
Previous Monthly Low	113.47
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	115.03
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	115.1
Daily Pivot Point S1	114.89
Daily Pivot Point S2	114.77
Daily Pivot Point S3	114.61
Daily Pivot Point R1	115.16
Daily Pivot Point R2	115.32
Daily Pivot Point R3	115.43

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

FXStreet

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

AUD/USD sits near a one-month top, above 0.7000 amid fresh USD selling

AUD/USD holds above 0.7000 through the Asian session, trading near a one-month high touched earlier this Monday amid renewed US Dollar selling. US bond yields decline further amid a modest pullback in crude oil prices, capping the USD recovery from a three-week low. Moreover, bets for a November RBA rate hike support the Aussie, though upside seems capped ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC meeting, starting Tuesday.

USD/JPY struggles below 157.00 on weak USD; holds above one-month low ahead of Fed, BoJ meetings

USD/JPY attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Monday, stalling its recovery from the lowest level since September 18, touched Friday as a further decline in US bond yields weighs on the US Dollar. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen benefits from a more hawkish BoJ, further weighing on the currency pair. The downside, however, seems limited as traders keenly await Fed and BoJ policy meetings later this week.

Gold looks slightly bid above $4,000

Gold manage to regain some balance, leaving behind two daily drops in a row and reclaiming the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce and above on Monday. The better tone in the US Dollar and mixed US Treasury yields accompany the precious metal’s uptick, while declining crude oil prices appear to sustain the bounce for now.

Bitcoin stalls around $80,000 as geopolitical tensions dampen risk appetite

Bitcoin hovers around $80,500 on Monday after three straight weeks of correction. Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to push oil prices higher, stoking inflation concerns and dampening risk appetite.

Everyone's bracing for a hawkish central bank week. Here's why the surprise could be dovish

Five of the world's major central banks are preparing to announce monetary policy decisions this week, with investors increasingly anticipating higher interest rates as the global energy shock continues to push inflation above target.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.