USD/INR gains even as Trump expresses confidence on US-India trade deal
- The Indian Rupee trades lower against the US Dollar as the latter stabilizes after surprisingly upbeat US JOLTS Job Openings data.
- Trump’s comments signaled that the US and India will finalize a trade agreement before the July 9 deadline.
- Fed’s Powell reiterates that the central bank needs more data before considering interest rate cuts.
The Indian Rupee (INR) faces selling pressure against the US Dollar (USD) during European trading hours on Wednesday. The USD/INR jumps to near 85.90 even as comments from United States (US) President Donald Trump have signaled that Washington and New Delhi are close to striking a trade deal with much less tariffs ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline.
US President Trump has also expressed confidence that lower tariffs from India will enable US companies to compete with Indian businesses, a scenario that could impact the sales of Indian manufacturers.
“I think we are going to have a deal with India. And that is going to be a different kind of a deal. It is going to be a deal where we are able to go in and compete. Right now, India does not accept anybody in. I think India is going to do that, and if they do that, we are going to have a deal for much less tariffs,” Trump said, ANI News reported.
This comes after India’s chief negotiator Rajesh Agrawal extended his stay in Washington to finalize a trade agreement before the tariff deadline, the report from ANI showed.
Indian Rupee PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Indian Rupee (INR) against listed major currencies today. Indian Rupee was the weakest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | INR | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.23% | 0.35% | 0.36% | 0.02% | 0.20% | 0.15% | 0.16% | |
| EUR | -0.23% | 0.08% | 0.10% | -0.24% | -0.00% | -0.09% | -0.06% | |
| GBP | -0.35% | -0.08% | 0.06% | -0.34% | -0.14% | -0.18% | -0.18% | |
| JPY | -0.36% | -0.10% | -0.06% | -0.34% | -0.18% | -0.19% | -0.21% | |
| CAD | -0.02% | 0.24% | 0.34% | 0.34% | 0.20% | 0.11% | 0.15% | |
| AUD | -0.20% | 0.00% | 0.14% | 0.18% | -0.20% | -0.01% | -0.03% | |
| INR | -0.15% | 0.09% | 0.18% | 0.19% | -0.11% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| CHF | -0.16% | 0.06% | 0.18% | 0.21% | -0.15% | 0.03% | -0.01% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Indian Rupee from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent INR (base)/USD (quote).
Indian Rupee weakens against US Dollar on upbeat US JOLTS Job Openings data
- The Indian Rupee weakens against the US Dollar as the latter gains ground after the release of the surprisingly upbeat US JOLTS Job Openings data for May. The data showed on Tuesday that US firms posted 7.769 million jobs, higher than 7.395 million in April.
- The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades higher to near 96.90 during the press time. On Tuesday, the USD Index rebounded after attracting bids near 96.40, the lowest level seen since February 2022.
- However, the outlook of the US Dollar remains weak as traders remain confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will reduce interest rates in the September meeting, and uncertainty surrounding the tariff deadline and fears of widening US fiscal deficit following the imposition of Trump’s so-called “big beautiful bill”.
- Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated while speaking at a central bank gathering in Portugal on Tuesday that the central bank needs more time to learn about the impact of new economic policies on inflation and the labor market before considering monetary policy adjustments. "We’re simply taking some time, and as long as the U.S. economy is in solid shape, we think that the prudent thing to do is to wait and learn more and see what those effects might be," Powell said, Reuters reported.
- For more cues on the monetary policy outlook, investors await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June, which will be released on Thursday. Traders could raise Fed dovish bets if data points to signs of weakness in the labor market. On the contrary, upbeat job data would force traders to pare bets supporting Fed interest rate cuts in September.
- In Wednesday’s session, investors will focus on the US ADP Employment Change data for June, which will be published at 12:15 GMT. Economists expect US private employers to have hired 95K fresh workers, significantly higher than 37K in May.
- On trade discussions between the US and Japan, Washington has expressed uncertainty over striking a deal with Tokyo before the tariff deadline on July 9. “We’ve dealt with Japan. I’m not sure we’re going to make a deal. I doubt it," Trump said while speaking to reporters on Air Force One earlier this week.
- The passage of Trump’s tax and spending cut bill to the House again for further consideration before moving to the President’s desk after clearing the Republican-controlled Senate has prompted fears of widening US debt. Economists expect Trump’s bill could increase US debt to $40 trillion over a decade, a move that would worsen the US sovereign credit rating, which was already downgraded from Aaa to Aa1 by Moody’s Rating in May.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR rebounds to near 85.90
The USD/INR pair rises to near 85.90 on Wednesday. However, the outlook of the pair remains bearish as it stays below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 85.95.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays below 50.00, indicating that the trend is on the downside.
Looking down, the June 12 low around 85.50 will act as key support for the major. On the upside, Wednesday’s high of 86.13 will be a critical hurdle for the pair.
Economic Indicator
ADP Employment Change
The ADP Employment Change is a gauge of employment in the private sector released by the largest payroll processor in the US, Automatic Data Processing Inc. It measures the change in the number of people privately employed in the US. Generally speaking, a rise in the indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and is stimulative of economic growth. So a high reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Wed Jul 02, 2025 12:15
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 95K
Previous: 37K
Source: ADP Research Institute
Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
