USD/INR faces some selling pressure, geopolitical tensions eyed
- Indian Rupee gains traction on Tuesday, backed by the softer US Dollar.
- Higher oil prices amid the rising tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe could weigh on the INR.
- US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, Durable Goods Orders, and House Price Index will be released on Tuesday.
Indian Rupee (INR) recovers some lost ground on Tuesday amid the weaker US Dollar (USD). Nonetheless, the INR fell to an all-time low of 83.48 on Friday due to broad weakness in its Asian peers and the aggressive local demand for the USD. Meanwhile, the renewed USD demand and higher oil prices amid the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe might drag the INR lower and cap the INR’s upside for the time being.
The US Consumer Confidence report by the Conference Board, Durable Goods Orders, and the FHFA’s House Price Index are due on Tuesday. Later this week, the US Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q4) will be released on Thursday, which is expected to remain steady at 3.2%. Attention will shift to the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data for February. The headline PCE is estimated to show an increase of 0.4% MoM, while the Core PCE is projected to rise by 0.3% MoM. On the Indian docket, the Indian Current Account data will be released on Thursday.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Indian Rupee stays firm despite global headwinds
- India's foreign exchange reserves reached an all-time high of $642.49 billion for the week ended March 15, according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
- The rise in foreign exchange reserves was boosted by the maturity of a $5 billion Dollar/Rupee swap that matured on March 11.
- India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth estimate for the current fiscal year has revised to 7.6% from 7.3%, signaling the strength of the Indian economy.
- The RBI is likely to keep the repo rate on hold at 6.50% at least until the end of Q2 of 2024 and expects to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in Q3 2024.
- The US February New Home Sales dropped 0.3% MoM from a 1.7% gain in January, below market expectations for a 2.3% MoM rise.
- The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey fell to -14.4 in March from the previous reading of -11.3.
Technical Analysis: Indian Rupee resumes longer-term uptrend
Indian Rupee trades strongly on the day. However, USD/INR resumes its upside in the longer term since the pair surged above a multi-month-old descending trend channel last week.
In the near term, the bullish outlook of USD/INR remains intact as the pair holds above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index lies above the 50 midline, indicating there is still room for near-term USD/INR appreciation.
An all-time high of 83.49 remains a tough nut to crack for USD/INR buyers. A decisive break above this level will pave the way to the 84.00 psychological level. On the flip side, the resistance-turned-support level at 83.20 acts as an initial support level. The crucial contention level is seen at the confluence of the 100-day EMA and the round figure of the 83.00 mark.
US Dollar price today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
| USD | -0.12% | -0.10% | -0.04% | -0.06% | 0.01% | -0.16% | 0.04% | |
| EUR | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.05% | 0.04% | 0.10% | -0.06% | 0.14% | |
| GBP | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.06% | 0.04% | 0.10% | -0.04% | 0.14% | |
| CAD | 0.05% | -0.08% | -0.06% | -0.02% | 0.04% | -0.12% | 0.08% | |
| AUD | 0.05% | -0.07% | -0.04% | 0.01% | 0.07% | -0.10% | 0.09% | |
| JPY | -0.01% | -0.12% | -0.11% | -0.06% | -0.05% | -0.15% | 0.03% | |
| NZD | 0.16% | 0.04% | 0.06% | 0.11% | 0.10% | 0.16% | 0.20% | |
| CHF | -0.05% | -0.16% | -0.14% | -0.09% | -0.10% | -0.03% | -0.20% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
Indian economy FAQs
The Indian economy has averaged a growth rate of 6.13% between 2006 and 2023, which makes it one of the fastest growing in the world. India’s high growth has attracted a lot of foreign investment. This includes Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into physical projects and Foreign Indirect Investment (FII) by foreign funds into Indian financial markets. The greater the level of investment, the higher the demand for the Rupee (INR). Fluctuations in Dollar-demand from Indian importers also impact INR.
India has to import a great deal of its Oil and gasoline so the price of Oil can have a direct impact on the Rupee. Oil is mostly traded in US Dollars (USD) on international markets so if the price of Oil rises, aggregate demand for USD increases and Indian importers have to sell more Rupees to meet that demand, which is depreciative for the Rupee.
Inflation has a complex effect on the Rupee. Ultimately it indicates an increase in money supply which reduces the Rupee’s overall value. Yet if it rises above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 4% target, the RBI will raise interest rates to bring it down by reducing credit. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (the difference between interest rates and inflation) strengthen the Rupee. They make India a more profitable place for international investors to park their money. A fall in inflation can be supportive of the Rupee. At the same time lower interest rates can have a depreciatory effect on the Rupee.
India has run a trade deficit for most of its recent history, indicating its imports outweigh its exports. Since the majority of international trade takes place in US Dollars, there are times – due to seasonal demand or order glut – where the high volume of imports leads to significant US Dollar- demand. During these periods the Rupee can weaken as it is heavily sold to meet the demand for Dollars. When markets experience increased volatility, the demand for US Dollars can also shoot up with a similarly negative effect on the Rupee.
Author
Lallalit Srijandorn
FXStreet
Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.
