- USD/INR keeps Friday’s rebound following three-week downside, eases of late.
- US-China trade deal termed as win-win situation, even for inflation concerns.
- Fed tapering tantrums remain elevated, India’s active covid cases fall to the lowest since February.
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI, China headlines may entertain traders ahead of Wednesday’s Fed meeting.
USD/INR retreats from intraday high, declining to 74.90 ahead of Monday’s European session.
Although the recently positive headlines for the risk catalysts help the Indian rupee (INR) pair to consolidate gains made since Friday, the cautious sentiment ahead of Wednesday’s US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting keeps the pair buyers hopeful.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s comments saying that, per Reuters, the reciprocal lowering of tariffs could help ease inflation recently underpinned the risk-on mood. Earlier in Asia, China’s upbeat Caixin Manufacturing PMI and hopes of US stimulus favored firmer sentiment.
However, firmer US Core PCE Price Index data, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, keeps the tapering tantrums on the table and favors the US Treasury yields, as well as the US dollar. On the same line were fears of China’s economic transition amid downbeat official PMI, published on Sunday, together with the energy and financial crisis at home.
At home, India reports the lower active coronavirus cases since February 26 whereas the virus-led fatalities also dropped by 251 versus 446 reported the previous day. It’s worth noting that the firmer COVID-19 vaccine jabbing in India has negatively affected the virus woes but the economy struggles to overcome the pandemic-led economic hardships and the looming fears of power cuts, which in turn doesn’t allow the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to remain supportive of the easy money policies.
It should be noted that October’s IHS Markit PMI for India battle fears of firmer oil prices of late. Moving on, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, expected 60.4 versus 61.1, may entertain intraday traders ahead of the key Wednesday.
Technical analysis
A three-week-old falling trend channel formation challenges USD/INR bulls between 75.05 and 74.55. Adding strength to the channel’s upper line is the 20-DMA while bearish MACD signals keep sellers hopeful.
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