USD/INR loses momentum amid weaker USD, strong Indian equity inflows
- Indian Rupee edges higher, bolstered by the strong equity inflows and a weaker US Dollar.
- Overseas investors bought $5.1 billion in Indian shares in December, the highest month of equity inflows since July.
- Market players will monitor the US Building Permits and Housing Starts on Tuesday.
The Indian Rupee (INR) kicks off the new week on a positive note on Monday. On Friday, the Indian Rupee posted its biggest single-day gain in more than eight months due to a sharp rally in Indian equity markets to fresh record highs. Foreign investors purchased Indian shares worth $5.1 billion in December, marking the strongest month of equity inflows since July.
Although the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to keep interest rates unchanged on December 8, Governor Shaktikanta Das said it does not imply a shift towards a neutral stance as concerns about inflation persist.
On the other hand, the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept the short-term interest rate unchanged last week, signaling that rate hikes are likely over amid falling inflation and a cooling economy. That being said, the anticipation of three rate cuts next year from the Fed has dragged the US Dollar (USD) lower and created a headwind for USD/INR.
Market players will keep an eye on the US housing data on Tuesday, including Building Permits and Housing Starts. The highlight this week will be the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, due on Friday.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Indian Rupee remains strong amid the multiple headwinds and uncertainties
- According to bankers and analysts on Monday, importers could use the Indian rupee's rise to its highest level in almost three months to hedge a significant portion of their short-term foreign payments.
- India's foreign exchange reserves rose by $2.816 billion to a four-month high of $606.859 billion in the week ending December 8, according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
- India’s Nifty 50 index has reached a new high, rising 16% in 2023, according to CNBC. India's stock market is currently the seventh largest in the world, with a market capitalization of US$3.989 trillion.
- WPI inflation in India climbed by 0.26% YoY in November, up from a 0.52% drop in the previous reading, above the estimate of 0.08%.
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in India rose 5.55% YoY in November, compared to 4.87% previously, falling short of the 5.70% expected.
- The Asian Development Bank (ADB) raised its prediction for India's GDP to 6.7% growth in Fiscal Year 2023-24 from 6.3% in September.
- RBI maintained the status quo in key policy rates and raised India's GDP growth projection for financial year 2023-24 to 7.0% from 6.5% in its October meeting.
- The US S&P Global Composite PMI grew at its fastest pace in five months in December, climbing to 51.0 from 50.7 in the previous reading.
- The US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dropped to its lowest level in four months in December, falling from 49.4 to 48.2 in December. The Services PMI jumped from 50.8 in November to 51.3 in December.
Technical Analysis: The Indian Rupee is to remain range-bound around 82.80–83.40
Indian Rupee trades firmer on the day. The USD/INR pair has remained stuck in a familiar trading range of 82.80–83.40 since September. However, USD/INR has resumed its downside journey as the pair holds below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. The downward momentum is supported by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) that stands below the 50.0 midline, indicating that the path of its least resistance is to the downside.
A decisive break below the critical support level of 83.00 will see a drop to the confluence of the lower limit of the trading range and a low of September 12 at 82.80. The next contention level to watch is a low of August 11 at 82.60. On the upside, the immediate upside barrier is seen near the upper boundary of the trading range at 83.40. Any follow-through buying above 83.40 will pave the way to the year-to-date (YTD) high of 83.47, followed by the psychological round figure of 84.00.
US Dollar price this week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
| USD | -0.18% | -0.13% | -0.04% | -0.24% | -0.02% | -0.43% | -0.14% | |
| EUR | 0.17% | 0.04% | 0.14% | -0.07% | 0.16% | -0.25% | 0.03% | |
| GBP | 0.13% | -0.04% | 0.09% | -0.12% | 0.12% | -0.30% | -0.01% | |
| CAD | 0.04% | -0.14% | -0.10% | -0.20% | 0.02% | -0.39% | -0.11% | |
| AUD | 0.24% | 0.06% | 0.11% | 0.21% | 0.22% | -0.18% | 0.10% | |
| JPY | 0.01% | -0.17% | -0.11% | -0.02% | -0.22% | -0.42% | -0.13% | |
| NZD | 0.42% | 0.25% | 0.29% | 0.39% | 0.19% | 0.41% | 0.29% | |
| CHF | 0.15% | -0.03% | 0.01% | 0.11% | -0.10% | 0.13% | -0.28% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
Interest rates FAQs
What are interest rates?
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%.
If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
How do interest rates impact currencies?
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
How do interest rates influence the price of Gold?
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank.
If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
What is the Fed Funds rate?
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure.
Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
Author
Lallalit Srijandorn
FXStreet
Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.
