- USD/CHF appreciates for the second day on upbeat US CPI figures.
- CME FedWatch Tool indicates expectations for a rate cut in July have surged to 84.2%.
- Swiss Franc encounters challenges as the SNB shifts its stance on the strength of CHF.
USD/CHF continues to strengthen for the second consecutive day during Thursday's Asian session, inching closer to 0.8790. The pair's appreciation is fueled by a stronger US Dollar (USD) supported by higher US Treasury yields, possibly driven by recent data on “resilient inflation” from the United States (US).
The upbeat US Consumer Price Index (CPI) has tempered expectations for near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). However, market sentiment still leans towards a rate reduction in June, with a likelihood of 67.2%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Moreover, expectations for a rate cut in July have surged to 84.2%.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Louise Yellen remarked that it appears unlikely for interest rates to revert to levels as low as those before the Covid-19 pandemic. She also noted that the interest rate assumptions outlined in President Biden's budget plan were deemed "reasonable" and aligned with a broad spectrum of forecasts.
On the other side, the Swiss Franc (CHF) encounters challenges as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) shifts its stance, no longer aiming to promote a strong domestic currency. Moreover, the prevailing risk-on sentiment exerts downward pressure on the Swiss Franc, traditionally considered a safe haven currency.
SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan expressed concerns about the Swiss Franc's excessive strength, particularly for Swiss businesses, especially exporters. His remarks align with data from Switzerland's Foreign Exchange Reserves (CHFER), indicating a recovery in Forex reserves. This suggests that the SNB may be selling Swiss Francs to purchase other currencies, aiming to mitigate the CHF's appreciation.
Meanwhile, the consumer confidence indicator in Switzerland continued its decline, reaching -42.3 in February from January's -41.1. This downward trend reflects heightened concerns regarding personal financial situations and the overall economy in the coming months compared to the previous period. Thursday will see the release of Producer and Import Prices for February, offering further insights into Switzerland's economic landscape.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD edges lower toward 1.0700 post-US PCE
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure but manages to hold above 1.0700 in the American session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) gathers strength against its rivals after the stronger-than-forecast PCE inflation data, not allowing the pair to gain traction.
GBP/USD retreats to 1.2500 on renewed USD strength
GBP/USD lost its traction and turned negative on the day near 1.2500. Following the stronger-than-expected PCE inflation readings from the US, the USD stays resilient and makes it difficult for the pair to gather recovery momentum.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,350 following US inflation
Gold turned south and declined toward $2,340, erasing a large portion of its daily gains, as the USD benefited from PCE inflation data. The benchmark 10-year US yield, however, stays in negative territory and helps XAU/USD limit its losses.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC’s next breakout could propel it to $80,000 Premium
Bitcoin’s recent price consolidation could be nearing its end as technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggest a potential upward breakout. However, this move would not be straightforward and could punish impatient investors.
Week ahead – Hawkish risk as Fed and NFP on tap, Eurozone data eyed too
Fed meets on Wednesday as US inflation stays elevated. Will Friday’s jobs report bring relief or more angst for the markets? Eurozone flash GDP and CPI numbers in focus for the Euro.