USD/CAD to sckyrocket to 1.25 by end-2021, loonie's wings clipped over rest of year – CIBC

The loonie takes the top spot on the leaderboard by a wide margin for performance against the greenback so far this year, as it’s up by over 5%. According to economists at CIBC Capital Markets, CAD is reaching an inflection point, as its shine will be dulled by an expected relative outperformance in the US economy ahead.

The Bank of Canada is likely to be less newsworthy than the Fed

“Most of the key forces behind that trend don’t look to have staying power, and we, therefore, maintain our call for a weaker CAD to end the year. But we’ve tempered the degree of softness in line with recent appreciation and a somewhat firmer range for oil this year, and we look for USD/CAD to end 2021 at 1.25.” 

“The expected depreciation ahead will initially come from a more hawkish tone from the Fed. That might not begin to play out for a month or two, but by September, with enough job gains in the books, we see US central bankers announcing an impending tapering for early 2022.”

“The loonie will also have its wings clipped as the resource price rally loses steam in 2022. The OPEC+ countries have remained a bit more reticent than we expected in terms of unleashing supply, and Iran’s status is not yet clear. While that has eased some of the cap on crude oil prices, we still expect supply to come on board from these countries to prevent a further, sustained crude appreciation in the next couple of years.”

“The return of international travel, where Canada runs a large services trade deficit, will also weigh on the loonie, as part of an overall move that swings Canada’s current account surplus back into deficit.”