|

USD/CAD stumbles below the 20/100-day EMAs, eyeing 1.3400

  • US Existing Home Sales continue to deteriorate and weigh on the US Dollar.
  • Retail Sales in Canada dropped, though improved in November, compared with October.
  • Fed’s Patrick Harker supports 25 bps rate hike increases to the Federal Funds rate.

USD/CAD is registering moderate losses during the North American session, falling from daily highs nearby 1.3500 after the release of US and Canadian data, bolstering the Loonie (CAD), which is trimming some of its weekly losses. At the time of writing, the USD/CAD exchange hand is at 1.3418, below its opening price.

US Existing Home Sales deteriorated, while Canada’s Retail Sales improved

Wall Street portrays an upbeat sentiment. The economic calendar in the United States (US) reported that Existing Home Sales for December retreated for the eleventh consecutive month. Sales retreated by 1.5% from November.

“December was another difficult month for buyers, who continue to face limited inventory and high mortgage rates,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “However, expect sales to pick up again soon since mortgage rates have markedly declined after peaking late last year.”

Across the border, Canada’s docket reported retail sales, which dropped by -0.1% MoM in November but improved as October’s data showed sales plunging -0.5%, according to Statistics Canada.

Aside from economic data releases, the USD/CAD was also underpinned by an upbeat market sentiment. The pair dropped beneath the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3470 and also tumbled below the 100-day EMA at 1.3426. Hence, the USD/CAD bias is shifting from neutral-biased to neutral-bearish.

Elsewhere, a slew of Fed officials, namely Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, opened the door for a downshift in interest rate increases, saying “Hikes of 25 basis points will be appropriate going forward.” He expects the US economy to grow by 1% and the unemployment rate to jump to 4.5% from 3.5%. Later, KansasCiti Fed President Esther George said that the Federal Reserve must be “patient” to see if inflation in the services sector is waning.

USD/CAD Key Technical Levels

USD/CAD

Overview
Today last price1.3409
Today Daily Change-0.0057
Today Daily Change %-0.42
Today daily open1.3466
 
Trends
Daily SMA201.3496
Daily SMA501.3498
Daily SMA1001.351
Daily SMA2001.3186
 
Levels
Previous Daily High1.3521
Previous Daily Low1.3447
Previous Weekly High1.3461
Previous Weekly Low1.3322
Previous Monthly High1.3705
Previous Monthly Low1.3385
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1.3475
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1.3492
Daily Pivot Point S11.3435
Daily Pivot Point S21.3404
Daily Pivot Point S31.3361
Daily Pivot Point R11.3509
Daily Pivot Point R21.3552
Daily Pivot Point R31.3583

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

More from Christian Borjon Valencia
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD extends the drop to 1.3360

GBP/USD builds on Monday’s decline and briefly clinches five-day lows near 1.3360 on Tuesday. Cable’s extra pullback follows the better tone in the Greenback as uncertainty in the Middle East prompts investors to adopt a cautious stance. Meanwhile, an apathetic UK labour market report also collaborates with the selling pressure on the British Pound.

EUR/USD stays offered just above 1.1400

EUR/USD keeps the downtrend well in place for yet another day, challenging the 1.1400 contention zone on Tuesday. The continuation of the selling impulse in spot comes amid decent gains in the US Dollar, which continues to find support in the persistent effervescence surrounding the US-Iran crisis.

Middle East crisis intensifies, Gold up

Gold now seems to have embarked on a consolidative phase below the key $4,100 mark per troy ounce in the latter part of Tuesday’s session. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict and rising expectations for a hawkish Fed policy outlook are expected to limit the precious metal’s bullish momentum in the near term.

XRP rebounds on rising on-chain activity
Ripple (XRP) ticks up and trades around $1.13 at the time of writing on Tuesday. This rebound aligns with a broader recovery in the cryptocurrency market, attributed to reports that mediators between the United States (US) and Iran are seeking a 10-day cessation of strikes to find a way back to the signed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU).
The Iranian war has again risen
The Iranian war has again risen to the top of the economics factor list. There is no end in sight. Intelligence experts say the current level of offense/retaliation will not change minds in Tehran, while in Washington, Trump fears all-out war, which would mean boots on the ground.
US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?
The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.