USD/CAD Price Analysis: Faces rejection near 1.2700 mark, 50-DMA hurdle

  • USD/CAD struggled to capitalize on its intraday positive move and failed near the 1.2700 mark.
  • Investors await a sustained move beyond a descending trend-line before placing bullish bets.
  • Dips towards daily swing lows might still be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited.

The USD/CAD pair quickly retreated nearly 50 pips during the early North American session and was last seen trading with modest gains, just above mid-1.2600s, nearly unchanged for the day.

The US dollar kicked off the new week on a strong footing and jumped to three-and-half-month tops. Apart from this, a pullback in crude oil prices undermined the commodity-linked loonie and extended some support to the USD/CAD pair. Despite the supporting factor, bulls struggled to push the pair beyond 50-day SMA, around the 1.2700 mark. The mentioned level coincides with a five-week-old descending trend-line and should now act as a pivotal point for short-term traders.

Meanwhile, technical indicators on the daily chart – though have managed to recover from the negative territory – are yet to confirm a near-term bullish bias. Moreover, oscillators on hourly charts have been struggling to gain any meaningful traction. The technical set-up warrants some caution for bullish traders. This further makes it prudent to wait for a sustained move beyond the 1.2700 mark before positioning for any meaningful upside for the USD/CAD pair amid absent relevant economic data.

That said, a convincing breakthrough might provide a goodish lift to the USD/CAD pair and assist bulls to make a fresh attempt to clear a strong barrier near the 1.2740-50 supply zone. The subsequent move up will set the stage for additional near-term gains. The USD/CAD pair might then accelerate the positive move and aim to reclaim the 1.2800 round-figure mark for the first time since early February. The latter coincides with another descending trend-line resistance and might cap the upside.

On the flip side, the daily swing lows, around the 1.2625-20 region should continue to protect the immediate downside. Any subsequent slide might attract some dip-buying and remain limited near the 1.2575 strong horizontal support. Failure to defend the mentioned support levels might prompt some technical selling and turn the USD/CAD pair vulnerable. The downfall might then drag the pair back towards the 1.2500 psychological mark en-route multi-year lows near the 1.2470-65 region.

USD/CAD daily chart


Technical levels to watch


Today last price 1.2661
Today Daily Change 0.0002
Today Daily Change % 0.02
Today daily open 1.2659
Daily SMA20 1.2658
Daily SMA50 1.2709
Daily SMA100 1.2855
Daily SMA200 1.3107
Previous Daily High 1.2737
Previous Daily Low 1.2646
Previous Weekly High 1.274
Previous Weekly Low 1.2575
Previous Monthly High 1.287
Previous Monthly Low 1.2468
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2681
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2702
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2624
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2589
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2533
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2716
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2772
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2807



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