USD/CAD Price Analysis: Drops back closer to 100-period SMA/ascending trend-line confluence

The USD/CAD pair comes under some renewed selling pressure on the last day of the week and continues losing ground through the first half of the European session. The pair drops to the 1.3600 mark, or a fresh daily low in the last hour, and is pressured by a combination of factors.

A modest recovery in the equity markets is seen weighing on the safe-haven US Dollar. Apart from this, bullish crude oil prices underpin the commodity-linked Loonie and exert some downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair. Traders now look to the monthly Canadian GDP report and the US US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data for a fresh impetus later during the early North American session.

From a technical perspective, the USD/CAD pair is currently hovering just above confluence support, comprising the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart and a six-week-old ascending trend-line. Given that oscillators on hourly charts have been drifting lower in bearish territory and losing traction on the daily chart, a convincing break below will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish trades.

Some follow-through selling below the weekly low, around the 1.3570 region touched on Thursday, will reaffirm the negative bias and make the USD/CAD pair vulnerable. Spot prices could then accelerate the fall towards testing the 1.3500 psychological mark. The downward trajectory could get extended towards the 1.3455-1.3450 intermediate support en route to the 1.3400 round figure (100-day SMA).

On the flip side, the 1.3650 area now seems to act as an immediate resistance. A sustained move above could allow the USD/CAD pair to make a fresh attempt to conquer the 1.3700 mark. Some follow-through buying will be seen as a fresh bullish breakout and lift spot prices towards the 1.3745-1.3750 hurdle en route to the November monthly swing high, around the 1.3800-1.3810 region.

USD/CAD 4-hour chart

Key levels to watch