- USD/CAD faces challenges due to the weaker US Dollar despite higher US Treasury yields.
- The decline in WTI prices, attributed to de-escalated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, restrains the upward momentum of the Canadian Dollar.
- The downside potential for the US Dollar may be limited as remarks from Fed officials indicate a hawkish stance on monetary policy tightening.
USD/CAD continues its decline for the fourth consecutive session, hovering around 1.3720 during Asian trading hours on Monday. This downward movement may be attributed to the subdued performance of the US Dollar (USD) despite the rise in US Treasury yields. However, the downside potential for the USD/CAD pair could be limited due to comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials hinting at a shift towards a more hawkish stance.
However, the Canadian Dollar's (CAD) gains may face limitations due to lower crude Oil prices, considering Canada's status as the largest oil exporter to the United States (US). West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude Oil benchmark, trades around $81.50, reflecting a 0.66% decline on Monday, by the press time.
According to the Reuters report, the Iranian authorities have downplayed rumors regarding a drone attack by Israel. With no imminent threat of escalation in the conflict, the immediate risk aversion has gradually subsided, putting pressure on the USD/CAD pair.
Furthermore, data from Canada indicates a softening inflationary trend, underscoring the divergent monetary policy outlook between the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed). While interest rates in Canada are anticipated to decrease in the summer amid declining inflation and slower growth, the situation is increasingly different in the United States (US).
From the Federal Reserve’s officials, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee remarked on Friday that progress on inflation had "stalled," and the Federal Reserve's current restrictive monetary policy is appropriate. Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stated that the US central bank would refrain from cutting interest rates until the end of the year.
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