• USD/CAD catches fresh bids on Tuesday amid a goodish pickup in the USD demand.
  • Aggressive Fed rate hike bets, recession fears seem to benefit the safe-haven greenback.
  • Demand concerns cap oil prices, which undermines the loonie and remains supportive.

The USD/CAD pair stalls the overnight sharp retracement slide from the highest level since November 2020 and catches fresh bids near the 1.3225 area on Tuesday. The pair builds on its steady intraday ascent through the first half of the European session and is currently placed near the daily high, just below the 1.3300 round-figure mark. 

From a technical perspective the pair has failed to break above the upper boundary of its multi-year rising channel situated at roughly 1.3300. Yesterday price action temporarily pierced above the channel only to then rollover and finish the day as a textbook shooting star Japanese candlestick pattern. If today closes in the red the combination of the shooting star followed by a red down day will give a bearish reversal signal, and suggest follow-through selling on the horizon. Alternatively, if the market rallies again and manages a daily close or open above the channel line (at around 1.3300) it will provide a strong bullish breakout signal. 

From a fundamental POV the bulls have the advantage, with a combination of supporting factors providing a goodish lift to the USD/CAD pair. Investors seem convinced that the Fed will stick to its aggressive policy tightening path and have fully priced in at least a 75 bps rate increase at the end of a two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which, along with a turnaround in the risk sentiment, continues to lend support to the safe-haven greenback.

The market sentiment remains fragile on the back of growing recession fears, amid headwinds stemming from China's zero-covid policy and protracted Russia-Ukraine war. Furthermore, worries that a deeper global economic downturn could dent fuel demand keep a lid on any meaningful upside for crude oil prices. This, in turn, undermines the commodity-linked loonie, which further contributes to the USD/CAD pair's intraday move up and supports prospects for additional gains. That said, traders might refrain from placing aggressive bets ahead of key data/event risks.

The Canadian CPI report is due for release later during the early North American session and influences the domestic currency. The US economic docket features housing market data - Building Permits and Housing Starts. This, along with the US bond yields and the broader risk sentiment, will drive the USD demand and provide some impetus to the USD/CAD pair. Apart from this, traders will take cues from oil price dynamics to grab short-term opportunities around the major.

Technical levels to watch

USD/CAD

Overview
Today last price 1.3295
Today Daily Change 0.0045
Today Daily Change % 0.34
Today daily open 1.325
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1.31
Daily SMA50 1.2978
Daily SMA100 1.2914
Daily SMA200 1.2798
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 1.3344
Previous Daily Low 1.3245
Previous Weekly High 1.3308
Previous Weekly Low 1.2954
Previous Monthly High 1.3141
Previous Monthly Low 1.2728
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.3283
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.3306
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.3216
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.3181
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.3117
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.3315
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.3379
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.3414

 

 

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