USD/BRL: Political headwinds facing the real – CIBC

FXStreet Team FXStreet

USD/BRL continued its upward trend, approaching the 6.0 mark. Luis Hurtado from CIBC Capital Markets sees political tensions and a dovish BCB to weigh on the Brazilian real.

Read about last USD/BRL moves

Key quotes

“A Supreme Court investigation on President Bolsonaro and his family already caused the resignation of the former head of the federal police and the Minister of Justice Sergio Moro, via alleged political pressures by the president. Investigation leaks will continue to be harmful for those with long BRL positions.”

“We’ve revised our Selic rate forecast to 2.0%-2.25% by the end of 2020. The clear dovish stance by the BCB, despite larger fiscal risks, should also put pressure on the BRL in the short-term.”

“We revised our USD/BRL forecast for Q2 to 5.50.”

Author

FXStreet Team

FXStreet

EUR/USD flirts with daily highs, retargets 1.1900

EUR/USD regains upside traction, returning to the 1.1880 zone and refocusing its attention to the key 1.1900 barrier. The pair’s slight gains comes against the backdrop of a humble decline in the US Dollar as investors continue to assess the latest US CPI readings and the potential Fed’s rate path.

GBP/USD remains well bid around 1.3650

GBP/USD maintains its upside momentum in place, hovering around daily highs near 1.3650 and setting aside part of the recent three-day drop. Cable’s improved sentiment comes on the back of the Greenback’s irresolute price action, while recent hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill also collaborate with the uptick.

Gold holds above $5,000 as bears seem hesitant amid Fed rate cut bets

Gold edges lower at the start of a new week, though it defends the $5,000 psychological mark through the Asian session. The underlying bullish sentiment is seen acting as a headwind for the bullion. However, bets for more rate cuts by the Fed, bolstered by Friday's softer US CPI, keep the US Dollar bulls on the defensive and continue to support the non-yielding yellow metal as the focus now shifts to FOMC Minutes on Wednesday.

Week ahead: Data blitz, Fed Minutes and RBNZ decision in the spotlight

The US jobs report for January, which was delayed slightly, didn’t do the dovish Fed bets any favours, as expectations of a soft print did not materialize, confounding the raft of weak job indicators seen in the prior week.

Global inflation watch: Signs of cooling services inflation

Realized inflation landed close to expectations in January, as negative base effects weighed on the annual rates. Remaining sticky inflation is largely explained by services, while tariff-driven goods inflation remains limited even in the US.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.