Analysts at the National Bank of Canada take a look at next week data to be released in the US that includes the June retail sales report. 

Key Quotes:

“We’ll get information about economic activity in late Q2 thanks to June data. Industrial production could have mustered only a small gain in the month, as a small expansion of production in the manufacturing segment may have been partially offset by weaknesses in the utility and mining sectors.”

“The June retail sales report will also come out. We expect both the headline and ex-auto gauges to have advanced only slightly, hampered by tepid auto sales and a decrease in gasoline prices during the month. The anticipated 0.2% increase in headline retail sales would still translate into a healthy 7.4% annualized progression in Q2 as a whole, confirming the strength of consumers in the quarter.”

“We’ll also get building permits and housing starts for June. The latter may have increased to around 1,280K in seasonally adjusted annualized terms if, as we believe, groundbreakings for multis rose to a level more in tune with the growing number of permits granted in this category in recent months.”

“The first clues on the state of the manufacturing sector in July will be available with the publication of the Empire State and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys.”

“Several Fed officials are also scheduled to give speeches, notably John Williams (Monday and Thursday), Charles Evans (Tuesday) and Raphael Bostic (Tuesday and Thursday). Finally, the Fed will issue the latest edition of its Beige Book.”

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