Analysts at Rabobank point out that we have the PPI figures from the US which will be the key economic release for today’s session.
“Producer price inflation has been accelerating since early 2016. Although there has been a modest dip between April and June, the annual growth rate resumed its upward trajectory last month. The measure that excludes food and energy is showing a similar pattern and as such diverges quite sharply from the development in core CPI. This is likely to be one reason why the Fed has been reluctant to change its inflation narrative (recent fall in inflation is partly transitory) – a message that also reverberated in the September FOMC meeting minutes. With commodity prices broadly stable over September and the DXY index only slightly higher, it does not seem likely that today’s set of PPI data (consensus estimate looking for unchanged core rate) will change the balance of opinion in the Fed. Tomorrow’s data (CPI), however, are likely to receive more attention.”
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