US NFP Preview: 7 Major Banks expectations from November payrolls report

Today, the US jobs report for November is due to be reported at 1230 GMT, and as we get closer to the release time, here are the expectations as forecasted by the economists and researchers of 7 major banks, regarding the upcoming employment data.

Most of the economists and researchers are expecting US NFP to post-reading in between 183-200k in November, following the above-consensus 128k October print. In addition, they are forecasting the unemployment rate to remain between 3.5-3.6% for the month.

Rabobank

“In the US we get non-farm payrolls. The expectation this month is 183K with an unchanged unemployment rate of 3.6%. Average hourly earnings growth is seen 0.3% m/m and 3.0% y/y. This series is always important but most so at a time when there are lingering fears over a potential US recession (which we fully expect in H2 2020, although the labour market is a lagging indicator) and yet a market trend into year-end that keeps pushing yields higher.”

TD Securities

“We expect payrolls to increase by a solid 200k in November following the above-consensus 128k October print. The headline print is benefiting from a temporary boost in job gains in the goods sector, which should rebound by around 50k —a bounce-back from last month's large decline due to the GM strike.”

“We look for the overall household survey to show the unemployment rate ticked down a tenth to 3.5% and expect wages to rise 0.3% m/m, leaving the annual rate unchanged at 3.0% y/y.”

Danske Bank

“Today, the main event is the US jobs report for November. Employment in October was quite strong, both when looking at the upward revisions of the previous months and the fact that the strike at General Motors pulled the headline down by nearly 50,000 workers. Soft indicators are showing a weakening in employment growth, but the headline is likely to be strong, as the striking workers have returned to work. We estimate non-farm payrolls rose 200,000 in November, suggesting underlying growth of around 150,000.”

Deutsche Bank

“In October, the +128k increase in nonfarm payrolls was the slowest pace of job growth since May but was better than expected with upward revisions to earlier months. The consensus is looking for a rebound to +190k in November. Meanwhile the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings yoy growth are expected to remain at 3.6% and +3.0% respectively.”

National Bank Financial

“In the U.S., the most important piece of news will be November’s non-farm payrolls. Jobless claims continued to hover near 50-year lows in the month, hinting at a very subdued rate of layoffs. Hiring in the private sector, meanwhile, may have improved somewhat judging from Markit’s flash composite PMI report which showed employment advancing for the first time in three months. The end of the strike at GM should also prop up payrolls. Accordingly, we’re calling for a slight acceleration in employment creation to 160K, a level still significantly above what the Atlanta Fed considers sufficient to absorb new entrants to the labour market and keep the unemployment rate steady over the long term (+110K/month). The unemployment rate, for its part, may stay unchanged at 3.6% if, as we believe, the household survey shows only a small decline in employment following outsized gains in previous months.”

ANZ

“Today’s non-farm payrolls report will be important in assessing momentum in the US economy, as the strength in the labour market has been fundamental to it holding up well this year in the face of manufacturing weakness and trade uncertainty. The median expectation is looking for a rise of 184k, up from 128k in October. This is one of the highest estimates this year preceding a payrolls report. For what it’s worth, November non-manufacturing jobs and initial claims over the survey week point to a stronger number than October. However, the ADP report was considerably weaker. None have a particularly strong track record.”

Westpac

“Attention turns to the monthly US jobs report. Nov non-farm payrolls are expected rise 185k and see the unemployment rate hold at 3.6%. Average hourly earnings are anticipated to hold at 3.0%yr, still down from the 3.2%yr pace seen in Aug.”