US NFP Preview: 10 Major Banks expectations from September payrolls report

Today, the US jobs report for September is due to be reported at 1230 GMT, and as we get closer to the release time, here are the expectations as forecasted by the economists and researchers of 10 major banks, regarding the upcoming employment data.

Most of the economists and researchers are expecting US NFP to post-reading in between 100-150k in September, following the reading of 130k in August. In addition, they are forecasting the unemployment rate to remain between 3.6-3.8% for September.

Deutsche Bank

“The consensus for today is for a 145k payrolls print which follows 130k in August with the range amongst the survey participants on Bloomberg anywhere from 85k to 185k.”

“Our economists are below market at 125k however they note that this could again be boosted by Census workers, which is why it will be critical for market participants to focus on private payrolls (100k forecast vs. 130k consensus and 96k previously).”

“A payroll print in line with our colleagues’ forecast should have the effect of raising the unemployment rate a tenth to 3.8%.”

“As far as the rest of the report is concerned, earnings are expected to rise +0.3% mom and participation rate to hold steady at 63.2%.”

Goldman Sachs

“Estimating nonfarm payrolls increased 150k in September.”

“Forecast for the unemployment rate 3.6%.”

“Average hourly earnings 0.2% m/m and 3.2% y/y.”

“Employment surveys weakened further on net, their levels are still consistent with above-potential job growth.”

Danske Bank

“We expect non-farm payrolls to have grown by 100,000 in September, which is below the Bloomberg consensus of 140,000. While the non-farm figure tends to be volatile, the employment indices in the Markit PMI and the ISM reports do not look encouraging (and actually signal that jobs growth was even lower than our expectation of 100,000). A weak jobs report will likely add fuel to the repricing of the Fed seen this week.”

TD Securities

“We expect payrolls to increase by 150k in September, following the below-consensus 130k August print. Reflecting the retrenchment in manufacturing, jobs in the goods sector should stay soft; however, we look for a modest rebound in employment in the services sector. We also note that temporary census hiring for canvassing purposes should continue to boost employment figures this month: we pencil in a 15k increase federal hires.”

“All in, the household survey should show the unemployment rate remaining steady at 3.7% in September, while we forecast wages to rise 0.2% m/m, leaving the annual rate unchanged at 3.2% y/y.”

UBS

“Expecting a 139k change vs 145k, albeit these expectations still reflect an improvement from the previous month's print.The pace is consistent with underlying weakness in the US economy. While the effects from the tariffs imposed in 2018 continue to fade, we see the effects of 2019 tariffs applied in May, June, and September as increasingly weighing on US activity.”

National Bank Financial

“Hiring in the private sector, meanwhile, may have eased somewhat judging from Markit’s flash composite PMI report which showed employment advancing at the weakest pace since early 2015. However, this deceleration may have been offset by the hiring of temporary workers at the Federal government to help carry out the 2020 census.”

“All told, we’re calling for a slight acceleration in job creation to 160K, a level still sufficient to absorb new entrants to the labour market and keep the unemployment rate steady over the long term (approx. 110K/month).”

“The unemployment rate, for its part, may stay unchanged at 3.7% if, as we believe, the household survey shows just a small decline in employment following August’s outsized gain.”

Rabobank

“The consensus for today is 145K, which would actually be seen as fine against a normal backdrop considering how long in the tooth this expansion already is. The crazy thing is now that a mere 10-15K miss on that expectation, which is nothing more than a rounding error in the scale of the US labour market of 130m plus, could likely be enough to trigger either manic or manic-depressive swings in many markets.”

Westpac

“Nonfarm payrolls employment has undergone a material deceleration in 2019, falling from around 220k in 2018 to average 150k per month in the past six months (to Aug). While we anticipate this downtrend will persist on a multimonth basis, month-to-month volatility will see a stronger outcome in Sep, circa 160k. Revisions are worth watching.”

“The deceleration in employment growth in 2019 points to the unemployment rate being at its cycle low. Still, the unemployment rate is unlikely to move materially higher, thanks to the FOMC's rate cuts and low term interest rates.”

“Finally on wages growth, a similar result to Aug is expected in Sep. In the near term, risks are to the upside, but in scale are immaterial.”

ING

“All indications suggest that it is tight with unemployment at multi-decade lows, but uncertainty appears to be making more and more firms wary about hiring. We therefore expect further evidence to suggest that payroll growth is sitting closer to 150,000 per month versus more than 200,000 per month over the past few years.”

ANZ

“Employment growth has slowed in 2019 but remains at levels which balance labour supply, a consensus print of 140k would leave unemployment unchanged at 3.7%.”