US: How markets will perform during the presidency of Donald Trump? - Natixis

Nordine Naam, Research Analyst at Natixis, suggests that the question now is how markets will perform during the presidency of Donald Trump, who will be sworn in on 20 January.

Key Quotes

“All will depend on exactly what measures are “actually” implemented. The president elect has already announced measures as part of a 100-day plan. Amongst these measures, there are some than can be expected to be positive for the US economy: term limit to be imposed on all members of Congress, hiring freeze for all federal employees to reduce federal workforce through attrition, five year-ban on White House and Congressional officials becoming lobbyists after they leave government service, cuts in individual and corporate taxes, increase in infrastructure spending, lifting of restrictions on the exploitation of job-producing US energy reserves, and revival of Keystone pipeline project.”

“However, there are also some highly controversial measures that are likely to weigh on US growth if they are actually implemented. They include notably various measures concerning the country’s trade and foreign policy. Notably, the intention is to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), impose tariffs on imports from Mexico (35%) and China (45%), and label China as a currency manipulator. The isolationism advocated by Donald Trump would be negative for US growth in that it would reduce the US sphere of influence and would, ultimately, penalise US economic interests.”

“Clearly, if all these measures are implemented the US economy will be heading for stagflation. Growth would be set to slow, while inflation would pick up. For now, it is difficult to know what Trump will do when faced with reality. In his first speech as president elect, Donald Trump sought to be conciliatory and appeasing. No mention of a trade war and/or of building a wall, the emphasis being instead on upping infrastructure spending.”

“And it seems that the market is banking mainly on the implementation of those measures that will be positive for the US economy and/or on there being continuity, i.e. business usual, in the absence of news, much as happened after the Brexit announcement, when the markets’ bear run lasted just two days. Donald Trump could start by announcing the least controversial measures, hence mainly those are expected to have a positive impact.”