US July CPI is the top-tier data release and both analysts at TD and the wider market look for headline inflation to rebound to 1.8% y/y while core inflation should remain stable at 1.7% y/y.
“However, we do see downside risks to the monthly print on both headline and core CPI and look for +0.1% (mkt: 0.2% m/m). While Fed officials are unlikely to change their tune on one month of data, this would indicate that price pressures are not yet gaining momentum. Also on the calendar are speeches by Dallas Fed President Kaplan and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, both of whom are voters in 2017. Kaplan is largely a centrist but Kashkari holds a dovish bias and dissented to keep rates unchanged in June.”
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