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U.S. economy in a snaphot - New York Fed

Federal Reserve Bank of New York just published its monthly presentation titled 'U.S. Economy in a Snapshot'.

Key quotes

  • Real consumer spending was soft in January, suggesting slower real PCE growth in Q1 than in recent quarters. Auto sales in January and February have shown a step-down compared to Q4 and there were further declines in energy services expenditures due to mild weather.
  • January data suggested somewhat stronger near-term momentum for business equipment spending in 2017Q1.
  • Surveys suggest sizable improvement in manufacturing conditions, but production data still indicate sluggish growth. Single-family housing starts appear to remain on a gradual uptrend, but new single-family home sales may have peaked in late 2016.
  • Payroll growth was solid again in February. The unemployment rate fell, while the labor force participation rate and employment-population ratio rose in the month. Some labor compensation measures are pointing to firmer wage growth.
  • Headline and core price data were strong in January, suggesting inflation is continuing its progress towards the FOMC’s goal.
  • U.S. equity indexes and nominal long-term Treasury yields moved higher. After trading in a narrow range for an extended period of time, oil prices recently pulled back over concerns of oversupply in the market.

Author

Eren Sengezer

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

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