US CPI will be in focus today – TDS

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

Analysts at TD Securities (TDS) offered a brief preview of Thursday's important US macro data – the latest consumer inflation figures for January.

Key quotes:

“The Jan CPI report will lead the data calendar in the US on Thursday. Headline CPI was probably held down by a decline in gasoline prices; our 0.1% forecast is below the 0.2% consensus. Even so, the 12-month change probably rose 0.1 points to 2.4%. In contrast, we expect the 12-month change in core prices to fall 0.1 points to 2.2%, even with a 0.2% m/m rise, although it is a close call between 2.2% and 2.3%. Net net, the trend still looks tame.”

“Global rates see a strong rally as markets continue to sift through the potential fallout from COVID-19. If CPI overshoots, markets are likely to look past the print for the most part as the Fed has indicated they are comfortable letting CPI run on the hotter side — but a downside surprise could trigger a decent rally in fixed income markets.”

“Separately, we expect initial jobless claims to print a steady 215k for the week of Feb 8, near the 4-week trend and somewhat above consensus expectations (210k). Also of note, the Shelton and Waller Fed nomination hearings will commence in the Senate at 10am.”

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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