Turkey: Central bank to keep rates unchanged, next move likely a cut - Standard Chartered

Analysts at Standard Chartered, think the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey will leave rates unchanged at the December meeting on Thursday and consider the next move could be a rate cut.

Key Quotes: 

“We expect the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) to keep interest rates unchanged at the 13 December MPC meeting. We see three reasons that support this decision. First, inflation is likely to continue softening. The November CPI print could be a sign that inflation has peaked, given the m/m deceleration to 1.44%. Second, the current account balance, which turned into a surplus in August and September, is set to continue posting surpluses in October and November, according to comments from the finance minister. A rebalancing on the external front, if sustained, would mean Turkey would be less exposed to portfolio flows in 2019 versus 2018. Third, Turkish lira (TRY) performance, with some of the currency crisis losses recouped, is supported by a more benign geopolitical backdrop and restored confidence in policy following measures taken by both the government and the CBRT during the crisis.”

“We think the CBRT’s next move will be a cut – barring unforeseen reversals in the above three trends. The key question is not if the CBRT will cut, but rather when.”