Today will be all about the RBNZ’s August MPS - ANZ

Ross J Burland FXStreet

Analysts at ANZ explained that today will be all about the RBNZ’s August MPS.

Key Quotes:

"We expect that the RBNZ will reiterate its previous neutral messaging, saying that the next move could be “up or down” – or words to that effect."

"However, our base case is that the OCR track will be little changed, with eventual increases late in the projection. In some ways, this difference between messaging and projection presents an awkward tension."

"But in our view it simply reflects a distinction between forecasting and policy strategy. The OCR projection is based on a set of assumptions that could (and will) prove to be wrong – such is the nature of forecasting."

"On the other hand, the RBNZ’s neutral messaging is about caution in light of uncertainty, sending the clear message that the RBNZ is willing to do whatever is necessary should developments change. We expect this caution to be a continued theme of today’s MPS in light of recent events."

"The outlook for activity is weaker, but the outlook for CPI inflation is stronger."

"We expect that the RBNZ will “look through” temporary movements in CPI inflation; instead focusing on the trend in inflation provided inflation expectations remain anchored – which yesterday’s figures show they are. Core inflation has been creeping up, but remains below target and is expected to increase only gradually from here. This speaks to a world where wait-and-see remains the best approach."

Author

Ross J Burland

FXStreet

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7200 ahead of China's trade data

AUD/USD sits above 0.7200 in the Asian session on Tuesday, near its highest level since May 14. The US Dollar stays under pressure as a rallying Japanese Yen outweighs support from hawkish Fed bets and geopolitical tensions. This, along with firming expectations for another RBA rate hike later this month, acts as a tailwind for the Aussie ahead of China's trade balance data.

USD/JPY: Heavy near 153.50 as BoJ rate hike bets boost JPY

USD/JPY is sitting at six-month lows near 153.50 in the Asian session on Tuesday, as Japan's upbeat wage growth data and Q2 GDP revision cement bets on a BoJ rate hike next week and continue to boost the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, US Dollar selling remains unabated despite hawkish Fed expectations and rising geopolitical tensions, lending additional support to the pair.

Gold rebounds toward $4,450 as USD weakness counters Fed hike bets

Gold rebounds toward $4,450 in the Asian session on Tuesday and, for now, appears to have snapped a two-day losing streak as a rallying Japanese Yen keeps the US dollar under pressure. However, hawkish Fed bets, along with rising US-Iran tensions, could support the USD and cap the non-yielding bullion as traders await US inflation figures later this week.

Bitcoin whale profits hit record $9.07B, long-term holders increase on-chain activity

Bitcoin’s (BTC) short-term holder (STH) whales have reached a record level of unrealized profit, raising concerns that increased profit-taking could put pressure on the market during its current consolidation phase.

Why Oil is setting up for its most explosive move in years

The biggest Commodity trade of the year may be hiding in plain sight. Gold, Silver, Copper and Agricultural Commodities have already delivered some of the most dramatic repricing events of 2026, rewarding traders who recognized early that scarcity, geopolitical fragmentation and constrained supply were becoming dominant market forces.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.