Threat of recession to force Fed to start a full-blown cutting cycle in 2020 - Rabobank


"The escalation of the US-China trade war and the resulting turmoil in financial markets has finally opened the Fed’s eyes that the hiking cycle is over and that the next move should be a rate cut," note Rabobank analysts ahead of next week's FOMC meeting.

Key quotes

"With the lack of progress in the US-China trade negotiations, the weak Employment Report for May and disappointing inflation data the FOMC now has all it needs to make an insurance cut. However, they may prefer to wait until after the G20 meeting before pulling the trigger. Therefore, we expect an insurance cut in July."

"In the meantime, we are likely to see a conditional statement at the June meeting promising an insurance cut if there is no significant improvement in the US trade relationships."

"What’s more, given the bleak outlook for the US-China trade negotiations, there is a significant risk of additional insurance cuts before the end of the year. However, we think that they will prove to be insufficient. More likely, the threat of a recession will force the Fed to start a full-blown cutting cycle in 2020."

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD: 50-day SMA restricts immediate recovery

EUR/USD buyers look for confirmation, despite recent bounce, as prices still trade below the near-term key moving average, around 1.1025, during early Friday.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD: On the bids above 100-bar SMA

GBP/USD holds on to recovery gains from 50% Fib retracement level while taking the bids to 1.2885 during the early Asian. Bullish MACD indicates pair’s another run-up to the short-term key resistance line.

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY extends the bounce above 108.50 on rising trade deal hopes

The USD/JPY pair extends its bounce from eight-day lows of 108.25 in Friday's Asian trading, with the bulls regaining control above 108.50 after White House Economic Adviser Kudlow's comments bolstered US-China trade deal hopes. 

USD/JPY News

Gold awaits clear direction around $1470 amid risk reset

With the fresh optimism surrounding the US-China trade accord, Gold prices struggle to extend the previous recovery while taking rounds to $1,471 amid Friday’s initial Asian trading session.

Gold News

US China trade and the global economy: Q&A with FXStreet senior analyst

After the meetings in October it was unclear if the new levies planned for December would be called off. And now, reports suggest that past duties may be removed. All in all, a positive development, isn't it?

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures