ING’s view on this week’s key data and events in the United States and the Eurozone can be found below, with the team concluding that as policy stands, they look for three 25bp interest rate increases by the Fed in 2018.
In the US markets are clearly settling down for the Christmas period, but there are still events worthy of note. 3Q GDP is unlikely to be revised in any meaningful way from its latest 3.3% reading, but we will be focusing on the industrial data to give us a better handle on how 4Q GDP is shaping up. Business surveys are at very strong levels, suggesting another 3% figure looks likely and this view should get some support from robust durable goods orders and another healthy industrial production growth reading. With inflation not far from target and the Federal Reserve signalling an appetite to continue hiking rates we look for three 25bp interest rate increases in 2018.
The entire Eurozone will bring the economic year 2017 to a close next week. In the typical post-ECB calmness, the Ifo index will be the only possible market-mover. It will be the first test case of how the German economy has reacted to the collapsed coalition talks. We will probably see more evidence of the phenomenon that politics does hardly have any short-term impact on the economy.