The week ahead: What to watch out for – RBC CM

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets present a brief preview of the key risk events due on the cards next week.

Key Quotes:

“Fed Chair Yellen (Wed & Thu): Yellen’s upcoming speeches on the economic outlook will be closely watched.

US CPI (Wed): Headline CPI should get another boost from firming gasoline prices and we expect a 0.3% advance for December. Core appears poised to register a relatively ho-hum 0.2%. These sequential changes will take both y/y rates to 2.2%. This will be the first time headline CPI is north of 2% on this basis since mid-2014

BoC meeting and MPR (Wed): The BoC is widely expected to hold the overnight rate unchanged at 0.50% at its policy meeting on Wednesday.

UK inflation (Tue): Despite average petrol prices actually falling modestly in December versus the previous month, they are up around 10% y/y, which is one of the factors expected to contribute to another increase in CPI and RPI inflation for December.

UK labour market report (Wed): The arithmetic for the headline unemployment rate just about points to another outturn of 4.8% as a central case, but it is on the cusp of ticking up to 4.9% and it would be much less surprising to see that outcome than a move lower to 4.7%.

ECB Governing Council (Thu): The ECB Governing Council’s first meeting of 2017 should be a low-key affair.

AU labour force report (Thu): Labour market indicators continue to send mixed signals, although the sum of them still point to modest overall employment growth and a steady unemployment rate (RBC: 5k / 5.7%).

Canada CPI (Fri): Headline CPI is expected to be unchanged in December following a sharp decline (-0.4% m/m) in November.”