Analysts at RBC Capital Markets present a brief preview of the key risk events due on the cards next week.
“Fed Chair Yellen (Wed & Thu): Yellen’s upcoming speeches on the economic outlook will be closely watched.
US CPI (Wed): Headline CPI should get another boost from firming gasoline prices and we expect a 0.3% advance for December. Core appears poised to register a relatively ho-hum 0.2%. These sequential changes will take both y/y rates to 2.2%. This will be the first time headline CPI is north of 2% on this basis since mid-2014
BoC meeting and MPR (Wed): The BoC is widely expected to hold the overnight rate unchanged at 0.50% at its policy meeting on Wednesday.
UK inflation (Tue): Despite average petrol prices actually falling modestly in December versus the previous month, they are up around 10% y/y, which is one of the factors expected to contribute to another increase in CPI and RPI inflation for December.
UK labour market report (Wed): The arithmetic for the headline unemployment rate just about points to another outturn of 4.8% as a central case, but it is on the cusp of ticking up to 4.9% and it would be much less surprising to see that outcome than a move lower to 4.7%.
ECB Governing Council (Thu): The ECB Governing Council’s first meeting of 2017 should be a low-key affair.
AU labour force report (Thu): Labour market indicators continue to send mixed signals, although the sum of them still point to modest overall employment growth and a steady unemployment rate (RBC: 5k / 5.7%).
Canada CPI (Fri): Headline CPI is expected to be unchanged in December following a sharp decline (-0.4% m/m) in November.”
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