Spain: Difficulties forming a government – ING

Steven Trypsteen, economist at ING, points out that today will be the first attempt to install Pedro Sánchez as Spain's prime minister after almost three months of the general election.

Key Quotes

“He needs a majority in parliament and this implies 176 supporting votes. His own party, the PSOE only controls 123 seats and so he needs support from other parties.”

“In his speech to parliament yesterday, Sánchez tried to convince other left-wing parties to support him.”

“But it seems that his speech was not enough to get support from left-wing parties. Traditionally, support would have come from Podemos (42 seats), but after yesterday’s debate, Pedro Sánchez was criticised by Pablo Iglesias - the leader of Podemos, which mean their support is certainly not granted. But what's more important is that Podemos support won't really be enough to get the 176 supporting votes. He would still need 11 votes from other parties.”

“If Sánchez fails to get a majority today, then a second vote will be held on 25 July. For this vote, only a simple majority (more than 50% of all casted votes) is needed, which is slightly less difficult to attain. But it is certainly not a done deal that the vote on Thursday would work for Sánchez as the relationship with Podemos remains difficult.”

“If Sánchez fails also to win the vote by a majority on Thursday, then Spanish politicians have two months to try again. And if they do not succeed, then new elections will take place on 10 November. A lot of uncertainties before we get to new elections, but we wouldn't rule it out just now.”