Interest in the next presidential election and its potential impact on the market increases exponentially as we approach Election Day. While the outcome is uncertain, history does reveal some interesting trends, per Charles Schwab.
Key quotes
“The S&P 500 Index ended on a positive note in 17 of the past 23 presidential election years, or 74% of the time, with an average annual return of 7.1%.”
“Since 1929, the total return of the S&P 500 has averaged 57.4% under Democratic presidential administrations, versus just 16.6% under Republicans. However, investors should treat this as a historical artifact rather than an ironclad law of politics and the markets.”
“When the S&P 500 has risen in the three months before an election, the incumbent party generally has gone on to win the White House; when it has fallen, the incumbent party has generally lost. Since 1928, this trend has been broken just three times, an 87% success rate, and it hasn’t missed since 1980.”
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