S&P 500 Index set to test a cluster of supports at 4041/20 – Credit Suisse

S&P 500 has gapped lower for a clear break of support at 4118 and the completion of a top. Economists at Credit Suisse look for further weakness to a cluster of supports at 4041/20 but look for a hold here. 

VIX has cleared its 200-day average warning of a further rise to 31.90, potentially 35

“We stay biased lower for a test of support next at the 38.2% retracement of the March/May rally at 4041. We see scope for an overshoot beyond here into the price gap from early April, now also the location of the rising 63-day average at 4034/20, but with our bias to look for a floor here to define the lower end of the aforementioned consolidation range.” 

“A close below 4021/19 though would suggest we are set for a more concerted phase of corrective weakness with support then seen next and initially at 3989/81.” 

“Resistance moves to 4091 initially, above which can see a move back to 4110/12, with the “neckline” to the top at 4135/36 expected to cap for now. We shall though maintain a tactical bearish bias whilst below 4152/62.” 

“The VIX has surged higher for a close above its 200-day average and we look for a further rise to 31.90, then 34.90/35.”