|

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD hits new monthly highs above $24.00, driven by falling US bond yields

  • XAG/USD surpasses monthly highs amid positive market sentiment, despite the rising US Dollar.
  • US Core PCE was below estimates, opening the door for a less aggressive Fed.
  • XAG/USD Price Analysis: Expected to continue its rally and test the YTD high of $24.63

Silver price trades at new monthly highs above $24.00 a troy ounce, sponsored by falling US Treasury bond yields. Sentiment continues to be the main driver in the session, with US equities set to finish the month with gains. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD is trading at $24.10, gaining 0.89%.

Fed's Collins welcomed inflation data, but reiterated the Fed's has work left to do

Wall Street continues to print gains across the board. The greenback is pressured by data from the United States (US), which showed inflation tempering; therefore, less aggression by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is needed.

The Department of Commerce (DoC) featured the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) for February, which rose by 4.6% YoY, below estimates of 4.7%, while the headline inflation dropped from 5.3% to 5% YoY.

Consequently, US Treasury bond yields edged lower, a tailwind for the white metal, which pushed through the $24.00 threshold for the first time since February 2. The US 10-year Treasury bond yield dropped four basis points (bps) at 3.516%, while US Real Yields stood at 1.26% as of March 30.

In the meantime, the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment for March was lower than expected, at 62, as opposed to the foreseen 67. Moreover, the survey updated that American consumers revised their inflation expectations downward. For the one-year horizon, the estimated inflation rate is 3.6%, while for the 5-year horizon, consumers estimate inflation to be 2.9%.

On the central bank side, Boston Fed’s President Susan Collins said that PCE inflation data is positive news, yet there’s still more work to do to bring inflation towards the 2% target.

XAG/USD Technical analysis

XAG/USD Daily chart

Given the backdrop, the XAG/USD is set to extend its rally and test the YTD high at $24.63. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), albeit at overbought conditions, backed the uptrend, while the Rate of Change (RoC) portrays buyers piled around the $22.00 area. The XAG/USD might consolidate as the RSI exits from overbought conditions, as buyers prepare to assault $25.00. if the XAG/USD clears $24.63, the psychological $25.00 barrier would be exposed. Once cleared, on April 18, 2022, resistance at $26.21 is next.

XAG/USD

Overview
Today last price24.11
Today Daily Change0.19
Today Daily Change %0.79
Today daily open23.92
 
Trends
Daily SMA2022.03
Daily SMA5022.21
Daily SMA10022.57
Daily SMA20021.02
 
Levels
Previous Daily High23.93
Previous Daily Low23.24
Previous Weekly High23.52
Previous Weekly Low22.16
Previous Monthly High24.64
Previous Monthly Low20.42
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%23.67
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%23.5
Daily Pivot Point S123.46
Daily Pivot Point S223
Daily Pivot Point S322.76
Daily Pivot Point R124.15
Daily Pivot Point R224.39
Daily Pivot Point R324.85

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

More from Christian Borjon Valencia
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD revisits 1.3530; Dollar pushes harder

GBP/USD adds to the weekly correction and recedes toward the 1.3530 zone on Friday. Indeed, Cable faces increasing selling pressure on the back of extra gains in the Greenback, particularly fuelled by Chair Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium and the US NFP Annual Revision (-79K).

EUR/USD breaches below 1.1600, multi-day lows

EUR/USD now accelerates its decline and retreats to seven-day troughs in the sub-1.1600 region at the end of the week. The pair’s pullback comes on the back of the strong rebound in the US Dollar after Chair Warsh delivered a hawkish message in Jackson Hole, while the US NFP Annual Revision came in at -79K.

Gold challenges its 200-day SMA near $4,530

Gold’s decline gathers fresh steam, hitting weekly lows while disputing its critical 200-day SMA near $4,530 per troy ounce. The yellow metal’s increasing weakness comes in response to the generalised upbeat tone in the US Dollar and the widespread rebound in US Treasury yields, as investors continue to reprice a Fed rate hike in September.

Week ahead: RBNZ and BoC decide on rates ahead of all-important US NFP
The US dollar staged a modest recovery this week, perhaps as traders decided to cover some of their short positions amid slightly stickier or in-line US PCE inflation numbers for July, confounding expectations of softer prints amid the softness revealed in the CPI data for the month.
CFTC Report: CAD short covering leads; Gold buying surges
The week in one sentence: speculative positioning shifted more constructively in the week to August 25. CAD short covering led the move, followed by a broad reduction in EUR shorts and renewed Gold buying. GBP and VIX positioning also improved, while JPY positioning deteriorated and WTI flows diverged from weaker prices.
Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.