Silver Price Analysis: XAGUSD bounces off daily low, eyes 200-day EMA resistance

Silver struggles to capitalize on Friday's bullish breakout momentum through the $20.00 psychological mark and attracts some sellers near the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the first day of a new week. The white metal remains on the defensive through the early European session and is currently placed near the lower end of its daily range, just above the mid-$20.00s.

The aforementioned barrier, around the $20.85-$20.90 region, should now act as a pivotal point, which if cleared decisively will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. With technical indicators on the daily chart holding in the positive territory, the XAGUSD might then surpass the $21.00 mark and aim to test the October monthly swing high, around the $21.25 region.

Some follow-through buying will reaffirm the near-term constructive outlook and lift the XAGUSD further towards the $21.50 level where the key 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) lies, en route to the $22.00 round-figure mark. The momentum could get extended and allow spot prices to test the next relevant resistance near the $22.35-$22.45 horizontal zone.

On the flip side, any subsequent pullback might now be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the $20.00 mark, which coincides with the 100-day EMA. A convincing break below will negate any near-term positive bias and shift the bias in favour of bearish traders. The XAGUSD will then slide to the $19.25 region en route to the $19.00-$18.90 pivotal support.

Some follow-through selling has the potential to drag spot prices to the floor of the range started in the summer at around $18.30-$18.25, which has undergone multiple tests. This is closely followed by the $18.00 round-figure mark, below which the XAGUSD could aim back to challenge the YTD low, around the $17.55 zone touched in September.

Silver daily chart

Key levels to watch