Short USD/SEK for target of 7.90 – Deutsche Bank

Sandeep Kanihama FXStreet Contributor

Analysts at Deutsche Bank are recommending to go short on USD/SEK cross as their G10 Trade Idea of the week with the following parameters:

“Target 7.90, entry 8.2856, stop 8.60”

Key Quotes

“SEK is trading at too large a discount to Riksbank pricing, in our view. This discount is probably explained by market fears over a potential housing crash, which are harder to price in rates because of the Riksbank sounding quite sanguine about slowing house price growth. We agree with the Riksbank that the housing market will only see a soft landing in the next weeks and expect the focus to return to the macro data, starting with Q3 GDP and the manufacturing PMI this week. We see cleaner upside risks to market expectations again after a three-month decline in Swedish data surprises. Entry levels are attractive again and our skew volume indicators suggest that positioning is much cleaner after weeks of net SEK selling in the options market.”

“We prefer to buy SEK against USD as EUR/USD may have further upside thanks to the Eurozone's strong macro pulse and an improving political outlook in Germany. For the same reason we also roll our USD/CHF longs into a long EUR/CHF position.”

Author

Sandeep Kanihama

FXStreet Contributor

Sandeep Kanihama is an FX Editor and Analyst with FXstreet having principally focus area on Asia and European markets with commodity, currency and equities coverage. He is stationed in the Indian capital city of Delhi.

160.80: Japanese Yen remains close to nearly two-year lows

USD/JPY inches lower after four days of gains, trading around 160.60 during the Asian hours. The USD/JPY pair surged to 160.80 the previous day, marking its highest level since July 2024 and significantly heightening speculation that Japanese authorities could soon intervene to support the struggling Yen.

AUD/USD eyes 0.7050 on weaker USD; 100-day SMA holds the key for bulls

The AUD/USD pair regains positive traction during the Asian session, reversing part of the previous day's slide to sub-0.7000 levels, or the weekly low. Spot prices currently trade around the 0.7040 region, up nearly 0.40% for the day, amid a broadly weaker US Dollar.

Gold stays firm near $4,300 as Iran peace deal offsets hawkish Fed

Gold clings to its modest intraday gains in the European session on Thursday and hangs close to the $4,300 mark amid a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD). The optimism over a US-Iran peace deal prompts USD profit-taking and supports the bullion. The Fed’s hawkish tilt could limit USD losses, capping the commodity.

Bitcoin slips below $64,000 as hawkish Fed stance weighs on risk appetite

Bitcoin remains under pressure, extending its correction, trading below $64,000. The US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but struck a hawkish tone on Wednesday, dampening the risk sentiment.

Bank Indonesia increases rates by 25 basis points in June: Will it defend the Rupiah?

Bank Indonesia decided to hike the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.75% on June 18, from the previous 5.5%. The decision aligned with the market expectations. The Indonesian Rupiah receives support against the US Dollar as an immediate reaction to the BI interest rate decision. The USD/IDR is trading around 17,820.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.