RBNZ: Call for a negative OCR in April 2021 – Westpac


Economists at Westpac Institutional Bank now expect the RBNZ will reduce the OCR to -0.5% in April 2021 (previously November 2020). The kiwi tends to rise when global risk sentiment improves and risk sentiment will indeed improve as the Covid crisis fades over a number of years.

Key quotes

“The Reserve Bank revealed that it has asked the trading banks to ready themselves to implement a negative OCR by December 1 this year. We now expect that the RBNZ will cut the OCR to -0.5% in April 2021.”

“We expect that the RBNZ will expand its Large Scale Asset Purchase (LSAP) programme to $70bn at the June OCR Review, and $80bn at the August MPS.” 

“We forecast that the weekly pace of LSAP bond purchases will average $1.1bn until April 2021, slowing to $0.8bn after a negative OCR is introduced. We calculate that the LSAP will eventually total $100bn by June 2022.” 

“We are not forecasting foreign bond purchases, but if there is another big negative economic shock this year then the RBNZ could use that option.”

 

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Feed news

FXStreet Trading Signals now available!

Access to real-time signals, community and guidance now!


Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD chops around amid end-of-month flows, ahead of Trump

EUR/USD is battling 1.11, close to the two-month highs amid choppy trading. Hopes for a fiscal boost in Europe and mixed satisfactory data have supported the currency pair. , Sino-American tensions are rising and investors await President Trump's China announcement.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD advances amid US dollar weakness, shrugging off concerns

GBP/USD is trading above 1.23, edging higher amid US dollar weakness and Britain's gradual reopening. Intensifying Sino-American tensions and the Brexit impasse are ignored. 

GBP/USD News

Cryptocurrencies: $348M in matured derivatives boost the market

Futures and options contracts' expiration brings a wave of volatility to the crypto market. Ethereum takes advantage and attacks resistances in the market dominance chart, Bitcoin goes back. Ripple disappoints despite regaining the third place in market capitalization.

Read more

Canada's economy falls by 8.2% annualized in Q1, better than expected, USD/CAD shakes

The Canadian economy squeezed by an annualized rate of 8.2% in the first quarter of 2020, better than -10% expected. Quarterly, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) squeezed by 2.1%. Most of the downfall occurred in March, with a drop of 7.2%, better than 8.5% projected. 

Read more

WTI drops 4% and eyes $32 mark amid risk-off, weakening demand

The selling pressure around WTI (July futures on Nymex) accelerates following the break below the 33 level, as bears now target the 32 support zone heading into the key US macro data and US President Donald Trump’s response to the Hong Kong issue.

Oil News

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures