NZD/USD seesaws around 0.6375 after Business NZ PMI, trade hopes renew

  • NZD/USD reverses most of the RBNZ-led gains.
  • Downbeat data from Australia/China, dovish comments from the RBNZ’s Bascend added weakness.
  • The odds of phase one trade deal between the US and China increase recently.

Following an upbeat print of domestic sentiment index, coupled with the recent positive signals concerning the US-China trade deal, the NZD/USD pair takes rounds to 0.6375 at the start of Friday’s Asian session.

New Zealand’s (NZ) October month Business NZ Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 52.6 from 48.4 anticipated and prior.

Recent signals from the Politico and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) indicate receding trade tussle between the US and China. Politico says that the US Department of Commerce is expected to extend the Huawei waiver while the USDA’s Under Secretary Ted McKinney recently said both sides will hold a call on Friday and is giving 50% chance of a successful phase one trade deal.

The risk tone was downbeat earlier as US-China keep being at the loggerheads. Despite China’s green signal to the US poultry, odds of a successful trade deal seems to linger the previous day amid previous concerns for the US farm imports and political tension between both the economies surrounding Taiwan/Hong Kong.

Increasing the downward pressure on Thursday were downbeat economics from major trading partners, namely Australia and China. Disappointment from Australian employment numbers and Chinese data-dump couldn’t help the kiwi extend its earlier run-up based on the RBNZ’s surprise no rate cut.

Additionally, comments from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Deputy Governor Bascend were also exerting downward pressure on the prices.

With no major data up for publishing on the economic calendar, coupled with expected trade talks, markets’ are likely to keep a close watch on the trade/political headlines for fresh direction.

Technical Analysis

Pair’s failure to cross 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), now at 0.6430, signals another decline to multiple lows surrounding 0.6320.

    1. R3 0.654
    2. R2 0.648
    3. R1 0.6447
  1. PP 0.6387
    1. S1 0.6354
    2. S2 0.6294
    3. S3 0.626


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