NZD/USD holds above 0.5900 following New Zealand CPI data

The NZD/USD pair rebounds to 0.5905, bouncing off the yearly low of 0.5860 on Wednesday during the early Asian session. The expectation that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is unlikely to lower its Official Cash Rate (OCR) soon lift the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against the US Dollar (USD). 

The annual rate of inflation in New Zealand has continued to fall, according to figures released by Stats NZ today. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.0% YoY in the first quarter of 2024. Stats NZ’s consumer prices senior manager Nicola Growden said, "Price increases this quarter are the smallest since June 2021. However, they remain above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s target range of 1 to 3 percent,”  

Inflationary pressures in New Zealand eased further in the March quarter, although domestic prices remained uncomfortably sticky, keeping rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand unlikely to happen soon. This, in turn, provides some support to the NZD. 

On the USD’s front, the hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Jerome Powell might lift the US Dollar (USD) in the near term. Fed Chair Powell stated that the US economy has not seen inflation come back to the central bank’s target, suggesting that interest rate cuts are unlikely to be seen in the near future. Investors see a nearly 67% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. 

Furthermore, the safe-haven flows amid the rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might boost the Greenback and cap the upside of the NZD/USD pair. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said in a statement late Tuesday that new sanctions targeting Iran and sanctions against entities supporting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iran's Defense Ministry will be imposed in the coming days.